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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ patriots week 3, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
1-1
17
TBD
Gillette Stadium
68°F
6 mph
51
NEPatriots
2-0
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
68°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
7
7
17
Patriots
10
10
17
14
51

Spread

NE logo
-14

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
293
471
Total Plays
55
76
Yards / Play
5.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.46
Passing Yards
236
346
Comp/Att
17/33(52%)
33/42(79%)
Yards / Pass
7.2
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.23
+0.54
Rushing Yards
57
125
Rush Attempts
20
32
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.39
+0.24
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
15
35
Passing 1st downs
12
19
Rushing 1st downs
2
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
50%
79%
3rd Down Conversions
6
11
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
6
Red Zone Attempts
2
8
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.17
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-6
-12
Sack EPA
-0.33
-2.65
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
114
30
Penalty EPA
-12.46
-4.85

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-14.0
Model
-15.5

Win Probability

Market87.3%
Model89.1%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-14.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.2%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+397
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,356
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.9
Home QB Adjustment
+26.6
Away QB Adjustment
-2.3
Market Regression
+11.3
Final Difference
364.3
Model Spread
-15.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-2.3
Value
Ptile
11/02
1.1
58
11/09
-5.5
17
11/23
-8.0
8
11/30
-2.5
32
12/07
-6.4
13
12/14
-12.0
1
12/18
-3.9
27
12/28
-5.8
16
09/13
-7.8
5
09/20
5.1
82
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.6
Value
Ptile
11/30
2.8
70
12/07
2.6
69
12/14
4.2
78
12/21
-5.4
17
12/28
-3.3
28
01/10
7.6
90
01/18
3.7
75
02/01
8.6
93
09/10
7.3
92
09/20
10.6
97

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jaguars logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
14
8
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
6
28
Rushing Yards / Game
27
10

EPA

EPA / Play
24
10
EPA / Pass
19
12
EPA / Rush
30
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
26
24
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
4
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
16
4th Down Efficiency
13
12
RZ Efficiency
18
14
Patriots Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Patriots logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
3
31
Yards / Game
9
24
Passing Yards / Game
5
32
Rushing Yards / Game
32
15

EPA

EPA / Play
1
18
EPA / Pass
4
26
EPA / Rush
6
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
4
Interceptions / Game
2
26
Fumbles / Game
2
15
Turnover EPA / Game
31
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
31
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
4
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/02
-10
L
P
O
11/09
-14
L
L
O
11/23
-20
L
L
U
11/30
1
W
W
O
12/07
-14
L
L
U
12/14
-8
L
W
U
12/18
8
W
W
U
12/28
-6
L
W
O
09/13
-11
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-5
L
L
U
12/07
9
W
W
U
12/14
28
W
W
O
12/21
1
W
L
U
12/28
-8
L
L
U
01/10
4
W
L
O
01/18
38
W
W
P
02/01
4
W
W
O
09/10
7
W
L
U
09/20
8
W
W
O