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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ chargers week 7, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
1-5
29
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
39
LACChargers
1-4
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
14
9
0
23
Chargers
9
7
20
3
39

Spread

LAC logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
298
484
Total Plays
62
78
Yards / Play
4.8
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.24
-0.03
Passing Yards
156
349
Comp/Att
14/29(48%)
28/44(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
7.9
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.33
Rushing Yards
142
135
Rush Attempts
28
33
Yards / Rush
5.1
4.1
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
15
29
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
40%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.18
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-19
-2
Sack EPA
-7.76
-1.08
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
55
35
Penalty EPA
-7.93
-5.13

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+145
Home nfelo
1,480
Away nfelo
1,355
Home Field
+12.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+7.8
Home QB Adjustment
+12.1
Away QB Adjustment
+4.3
Market Regression
-22.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+4.3
Value
Ptile
12/08
-0.3
51
12/15
-1.1
46
12/22
-5.8
16
12/29
1.4
65
09/13
2.1
60
09/20
3.0
67
09/24
-3.3
22
10/04
2.2
61
10/11
0.5
49
10/18
-0.8
40
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Value
Ptile
09/20
3.9
72
09/27
2.8
65
10/04
4.8
78
10/12
3.0
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Chargers Defense
Jaguars logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
30
23
Yards / Game
27
10
Passing Yards / Game
19
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
17

EPA

EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
26
19
EPA / Rush
17
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
27
16
Fumbles / Game
20
24
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
22
4th Down Efficiency
31
26
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Chargers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Chargers logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
18
31
Yards / Game
10
31
Passing Yards / Game
2
23
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30

EPA

EPA / Play
23
30
EPA / Pass
10
30
EPA / Rush
31
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
7
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
30
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
21
4th Down Efficiency
25
26
RZ Efficiency
21
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
-35
L
L
O
12/15
4
W
W
U
12/22
-12
L
L
U
12/29
18
W
W
O
09/13
7
W
W
O
09/20
-3
L
W
O
09/24
-18
L
L
U
10/04
-8
L
L
O
10/11
-16
L
L
U
10/18
-18
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
-3
L
L
O
12/08
35
W
W
O
12/15
-29
L
L
O
12/22
-7
L
L
U
12/29
-10
L
P
O
09/13
3
W
W
U
09/20
-3
L
W
U
09/27
-5
L
L
U
10/04
-7
L
W
O
10/12
-3
L
W
O