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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. jaguars @ cardinals week 12, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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JAX logo
JAXJaguars
7-3
24
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
27
ARICardinals
4-6
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Jaguars
0
3
7
8
18
Cardinals
3
10
3
11
27

Spread

ARI logo
+6

Total

OVER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Jaguars logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
219
346
Total Plays
58
71
Yards / Play
3.8
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.09
Passing Yards
128
238
Comp/Att
19/33(58%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.14
Rushing Yards
91
108
Rush Attempts
22
31
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Jaguars logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
19
20
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
8%
41%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
17
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
1
Negative Plays
Jaguars logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-9.82
-9.39
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-32
-5
Sack EPA
-5.27
-6.54
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
45
98
Penalty EPA
-5.51
-6.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
JAX logo
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model63.1%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+7.6%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-47
Home nfelo
1,432
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+76.8
Base HFA
+56.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+20.3
Net QB Adjustment
-39.4
Home QB Adjustment
-43.0
Away QB Adjustment
-3.6
Market Regression
+15.6
Final Difference
-93.5
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

R. Bortles headshot

R. Bortles

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.6
Value
Ptile
09/10
-0.6
47
09/17
-3.2
29
09/24
9.0
96
10/01
-4.6
21
10/08
-6.3
14
10/15
-3.2
30
10/22
3.9
80
11/05
4.6
83
11/12
-3.1
31
11/19
-4.2
24
B. Gabbert headshot

B. Gabbert

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-43.0
Value
Ptile
12/13
-7.8
5
12/20
-5.6
13
12/27
0.4
53
01/03
1.5
62
09/12
2.2
66
09/18
-1.3
38
09/25
-3.3
24
10/02
-1.5
37
10/06
-5.3
14
11/19
0.1
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Jaguars Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Jaguars logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
6
18
Yards / Game
9
4
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
1
6

EPA

EPA / Play
9
6
EPA / Pass
10
9
EPA / Rush
6
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
3
Interceptions / Game
9
12
Fumbles / Game
20
23
Turnover EPA / Game
24
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
13
RZ Efficiency
1
23
Cardinals Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Cardinals logo
Jaguars logo

Total

Points / Game
24
3
Yards / Game
23
3
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
30
17

EPA

EPA / Play
30
1
EPA / Pass
29
1
EPA / Rush
31
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
29
Interceptions / Game
28
2
Fumbles / Game
10
6
Turnover EPA / Game
5
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
4
4th Down Efficiency
20
24
RZ Efficiency
30
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

JAX logo

Jaguars

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
22
W
W
U
09/17
-21
L
L
O
09/24
37
W
W
O
10/01
-3
L
L
O
10/08
21
W
W
U
10/15
-10
L
L
O
10/22
27
W
W
U
11/05
16
W
W
U
11/12
3
W
L
U
11/19
12
W
W
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
2-7-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-12
L
L
O
09/17
3
W
L
U
09/25
-11
L
L
U
10/01
3
W
L
U
10/08
-27
L
L
U
10/15
5
W
W
O
10/22
-33
L
L
U
11/05
10
W
W
U
11/09
-6
L
P
U
11/19
-10
L
L
O