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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ cowboys week 1, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
-
17
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
35
DALCowboys
-
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
7
0
3
7
17
Cowboys
7
14
14
0
35

Spread

DAL logo
-7

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
470
494
Total Plays
66
62
Yards / Play
7.1
8.0
EPA / Play
+0.04
+0.34
Passing Yards
319
--
Comp/Att
33/48(69%)
25/32(78%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.94
Rushing Yards
151
89
Rush Attempts
17
30
Yards / Rush
8.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.37
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
25
23
Passing 1st downs
16
18
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
18%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-6.68
--
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-4.48
--
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
70
47
Penalty EPA
-9.70
-5.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+133
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,443
Home Field
+42.6
Base HFA
+58.6
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
-1.4
Market Regression
-3.7
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Value
Ptile
10/22
2.1
63
10/28
-6.7
11
11/12
2.2
64
11/18
-0.4
43
11/25
-0.1
45
12/02
-5.4
16
12/09
1.3
56
12/16
-7.9
9
12/23
5.9
84
12/30
1.2
55
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Value
Ptile
11/11
1.7
60
11/18
-1.3
37
11/22
4.5
77
11/29
-1.4
36
12/09
7.0
90
12/16
-5.8
14
12/23
1.7
59
12/30
6.0
84
01/05
2.8
69
01/12
3.8
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Giants logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
18
9
Yards / Game
23
9
Passing Yards / Game
16
22
Rushing Yards / Game
19
10

EPA

EPA / Play
26
12
EPA / Pass
27
10
EPA / Rush
11
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
31
Interceptions / Game
25
30
Fumbles / Game
32
12
Turnover EPA / Game
2
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
3
4th Down Efficiency
18
12
RZ Efficiency
17
6
Cowboys Offense vs Giants Defense
Cowboys logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
17
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20

EPA

EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
3
28
EPA / Rush
3
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
14
25
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
20
4th Down Efficiency
20
24
RZ Efficiency
16
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/22
-3
L
W
U
10/28
-7
L
L
U
11/12
4
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
P
O
11/25
-3
L
W
U
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
24
W
W
O
12/16
-17
L
L
U
12/23
-1
L
W
O
12/30
-1
L
L
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
7
W
W
O
11/18
3
W
W
U
11/22
8
W
W
O
11/29
3
W
W
U
12/09
6
W
W
O
12/16
-23
L
L
U
12/23
7
W
P
U
12/30
1
W
W
O
01/05
2
W
L
O
01/12
-8
L
L
O