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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. giants @ chargers week 14, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NYG logo
NYGGiants
5-7
14
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
53°F
8 mph
37
LACChargers
5-7
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
53°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Giants
0
0
7
7
14
Chargers
7
17
7
6
37

Spread

LAC logo
-4

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Giants logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
333
388
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
6.2
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.24
Passing Yards
241
244
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
8.7
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.53
Rushing Yards
92
144
Rush Attempts
20
40
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Giants logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
18
25
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
8
15
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Giants logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.38
-5.31
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-18
-5
Sack EPA
-4.51
-6.42
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
72
30
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-3.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,456
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+106.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+47.6
Home QB Adjustment
+25.6
Away QB Adjustment
-22.0
Market Regression
+39.9
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0

Quarterbacks

E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-22.0
Value
Ptile
09/22
-12.2
1
09/29
-4.4
22
10/06
-5.4
18
10/10
-5.6
16
10/21
-2.3
37
10/27
-0.5
46
11/10
-7.9
8
11/17
-1.2
44
11/24
-3.0
31
12/01
-1.5
42
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Value
Ptile
09/22
1.8
63
09/29
10.9
96
10/06
2.7
69
10/14
1.3
60
10/20
4.8
83
11/03
3.0
71
11/10
-1.7
41
11/17
0.5
54
11/24
10.3
96
12/01
0.5
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Giants Offense vs Chargers Defense
Giants logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
9
Yards / Game
29
23
Passing Yards / Game
13
20
Rushing Yards / Game
29
14

EPA

EPA / Play
32
30
EPA / Pass
28
22
EPA / Rush
32
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
28
Interceptions / Game
32
24
Fumbles / Game
31
19
Turnover EPA / Game
1
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
21
4th Down Efficiency
15
15
RZ Efficiency
30
24
Chargers Offense vs Giants Defense
Chargers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
14
17
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
2
2
Rushing Yards / Game
13
12

EPA

EPA / Play
2
7
EPA / Pass
2
8
EPA / Rush
10
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
20
Interceptions / Game
5
12
Fumbles / Game
7
5
Turnover EPA / Game
27
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
3
RZ Efficiency
21
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-38
L
L
U
09/29
-24
L
L
U
10/06
-15
L
L
O
10/10
-6
L
W
O
10/21
16
W
W
U
10/27
8
W
W
U
11/10
4
W
L
O
11/17
14
W
W
U
11/24
-3
L
L
O
12/01
7
W
W
U
LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
-3
L
P
U
09/29
9
W
W
O
10/06
-10
L
L
U
10/14
10
W
W
U
10/20
18
W
W
U
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
-8
L
L
U
11/17
-4
L
L
U
11/24
3
W
W
O
12/01
-7
L
L
U