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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ saints week 19, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
10-7
14
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
20
NOSaints
13-3
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
14
0
0
0
14
Saints
0
10
7
3
20

Spread

PHI logo
+8.5

Total

UNDER
52

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
250
420
Total Plays
47
71
Yards / Play
5.3
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.09
+0.02
Passing Yards
--
283
Comp/Att
18/31(58%)
28/38(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.4
EPA / Pass
-0.07
+0.27
Rushing Yards
49
137
Rush Attempts
16
31
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
15
25
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
29%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
2
8
3rd Down Attempts
7
15
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.73
-3.15
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-18
Sack EPA
--
-3.95
Penalties
4
11
Penalty Yards
30
84
Penalty EPA
-3.00
-8.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.5

Win Probability

Market76.8%
Model76.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+220
Home nfelo
1,641
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+106.3
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+16.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.4
Time Adj
+10.5
Net QB Adjustment
+15.3
Home QB Adjustment
+6.9
Away QB Adjustment
-8.5
Market Regression
+10.6
Final Difference
207.9
Model Spread
-8.5

Quarterbacks

N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Value
Ptile
12/31
-9.0
4
01/13
0.5
56
01/21
10.9
98
02/04
8.0
93
09/06
-8.3
8
09/16
3.2
71
12/16
1.6
58
12/23
11.7
98
12/30
1.9
61
01/06
1.1
54
D. Brees headshot

D. Brees

Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+6.9
Value
Ptile
10/21
4.4
77
10/28
-1.2
38
11/04
11.7
98
11/11
10.2
96
11/18
10.7
97
11/22
-0.3
44
11/29
-5.1
18
12/09
1.0
54
12/17
-5.3
17
12/23
3.3
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Saints Defense
Eagles logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
20
14
Yards / Game
17
12
Passing Yards / Game
11
17
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2

EPA

EPA / Play
11
11
EPA / Pass
11
21
EPA / Rush
22
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
30
Interceptions / Game
21
15
Fumbles / Game
24
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
7
RZ Efficiency
17
23
Saints Offense vs Eagles Defense
Saints logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
3
9
Yards / Game
8
23
Passing Yards / Game
21
29
Rushing Yards / Game
9
6

EPA

EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
2
22
EPA / Rush
13
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
4
25
Fumbles / Game
13
25
Turnover EPA / Game
23
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
8
4th Down Efficiency
2
20
RZ Efficiency
4
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
6
W
W
U
11/11
-7
L
L
O
11/18
-41
L
L
U
11/25
3
W
L
U
12/03
15
W
W
U
12/09
-6
L
L
O
12/16
7
W
W
O
12/23
2
W
W
O
12/30
24
W
W
U
01/06
1
W
W
U
NO logo

Saints

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
10
W
W
U
11/04
10
W
W
O
11/11
37
W
W
O
11/18
41
W
W
U
11/22
14
W
W
U
11/29
-3
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
U
12/17
3
W
L
U
12/23
3
W
L
O
12/30
-19
L
L
O