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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ panthers week 5, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
1-3
21
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
76°F
13 mph
18
CARPanthers
3-1
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
76°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
3
7
8
21
Panthers
10
3
0
3
16

Spread

PHI logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
275
267
Total Plays
62
70
Yards / Play
4.4
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.34
-0.35
Passing Yards
184
158
Comp/Att
22/38(58%)
21/37(57%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.49
Rushing Yards
91
109
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
15
17
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.69
-12.58
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-19
Sack EPA
-3.96
-5.26
Penalties
6
9
Penalty Yards
60
69
Penalty EPA
-4.59
-5.91

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model58.3%
Spread Pick
CAR logo
Panthers-2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+119
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+42.0
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-13.9
Home QB Adjustment
+4.0
Away QB Adjustment
+17.9
Market Regression
-57.7
Final Difference
58.3
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+17.9
Value
Ptile
12/13
6.2
85
12/20
4.0
73
12/27
-0.8
40
01/03
-5.3
15
09/12
8.9
95
09/19
2.3
70
09/27
0.6
58
10/03
6.4
89
S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
+4.0
Value
Ptile
11/29
-9.0
4
12/06
-1.4
34
12/13
-8.1
6
12/20
2.3
62
12/27
-3.1
23
01/03
-3.5
22
09/12
2.6
72
09/19
3.6
78
09/23
2.0
67
10/03
1.9
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Panthers Defense
Eagles logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
20
Yards / Game
13
2
Passing Yards / Game
17
1
Rushing Yards / Game
1
18

EPA

EPA / Play
10
7
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
3
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
5
Interceptions / Game
7
27
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
8
4th Down Efficiency
25
18
RZ Efficiency
8
31
Panthers Offense vs Eagles Defense
Panthers logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
29
19
Yards / Game
30
10
Passing Yards / Game
29
3
Rushing Yards / Game
20
9

EPA

EPA / Play
32
18
EPA / Pass
32
23
EPA / Rush
17
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
26
Interceptions / Game
32
21
Fumbles / Game
13
31
Turnover EPA / Game
1
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
23
4th Down Efficiency
31
9
RZ Efficiency
25
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/30
-6
L
W
U
12/06
-14
L
L
U
12/13
3
W
W
O
12/20
-7
L
L
O
12/27
-20
L
L
O
01/03
-6
L
W
U
09/12
26
W
W
U
09/19
-6
L
L
U
09/27
-20
L
L
O
10/03
-12
L
L
O
CAR logo

Panthers

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
20
W
W
U
11/29
-1
L
W
O
12/13
-5
L
L
O
12/19
-8
L
W
U
12/27
7
W
W
U
01/03
-26
L
L
U
09/12
5
W
W
U
09/19
19
W
W
U
09/23
15
W
W
U
10/03
-8
L
L
O