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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ giants week 10, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
3-4
17
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
18 mph
27
NYGGiants
2-7
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
56°F
18 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
3
0
14
0
17
Giants
7
7
7
6
27

Spread

NYG logo
+4.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
348
382
Total Plays
65
67
Yards / Play
5.4
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.17
Passing Yards
190
231
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
21/28(75%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.13
+0.26
Rushing Yards
158
151
Rush Attempts
24
36
Yards / Rush
6.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.40
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
11
12
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
0%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
--
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-18
-13
Sack EPA
-5.03
-3.10
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
74
64
Penalty EPA
-7.22
-7.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-76
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+0.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-4.8
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
-9.9
Away QB Adjustment
-16.6
Market Regression
-51.6
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-16.6
Value
Ptile
12/29
0.4
55
01/05
-9.0
6
09/13
-9.9
3
09/20
-0.8
38
09/27
0.0
46
10/04
-0.3
44
10/11
-4.1
18
10/18
0.4
49
10/22
2.1
60
11/01
-8.9
5
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
Value
Ptile
12/29
-1.7
40
09/14
0.3
48
09/20
-4.0
19
09/27
-3.7
20
10/04
-5.0
15
10/11
-4.8
16
10/18
-1.0
38
10/22
3.5
70
11/02
-1.6
32
11/08
-4.3
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Giants Defense
Eagles logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
26
9
Yards / Game
25
12
Passing Yards / Game
23
26
Rushing Yards / Game
10
11

EPA

EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
31
17
EPA / Rush
14
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
31
20
Fumbles / Game
23
13
Turnover EPA / Game
5
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
24
4th Down Efficiency
26
22
RZ Efficiency
13
3
Giants Offense vs Eagles Defense
Giants logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
31
20
Yards / Game
31
17
Passing Yards / Game
26
29
Rushing Yards / Game
19
22

EPA

EPA / Play
28
12
EPA / Pass
27
15
EPA / Rush
19
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
30
6
Turnover EPA / Game
12
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
8
4th Down Efficiency
8
3
RZ Efficiency
31
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

4-5-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
17
W
W
O
01/05
-8
L
L
U
09/13
-10
L
L
O
09/20
-18
L
L
O
09/27
0
T
L
U
10/04
5
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/18
-2
L
W
O
10/22
1
W
L
U
11/01
14
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

2-8
SU
6-4
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-17
L
L
O
09/14
-10
L
L
U
09/20
-4
L
W
U
09/27
-27
L
L
O
10/04
-8
L
W
U
10/11
-3
L
W
O
10/18
1
W
L
U
10/22
-1
L
W
U
11/02
-2
L
W
O
11/08
3
W
W
P