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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. eagles @ bengals week 8, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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PHI logo
PHIEagles
4-2
37
TBD
Paycor Stadium
59°F
6 mph
17
CINBengals
3-4
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
59°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Eagles
0
10
14
13
37
Bengals
7
3
7
0
17

Spread

PHI logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Eagles logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
397
280
Total Plays
59
58
Yards / Play
6.7
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.40
-0.02
Passing Yards
--
222
Comp/Att
16/20(80%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.72
+0.07
Rushing Yards
161
58
Rush Attempts
39
20
Yards / Rush
4.1
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Eagles logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
13
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
55%
77%
3rd Down Conversions
6
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
60%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Eagles logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-7.33
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-12
Sack EPA
--
-1.50
Penalties
4
1
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,586
Away nfelo
1,560
Home Field
+59.3
Base HFA
+44.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+17.2
Home QB Adjustment
+11.4
Away QB Adjustment
-5.8
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
Value
Ptile
12/25
4.1
76
12/31
2.6
67
01/07
-9.9
3
01/15
0.1
50
09/06
-1.6
37
09/16
5.8
83
09/22
0.0
49
09/29
-5.4
14
10/13
4.8
79
10/20
-0.4
46
J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
Value
Ptile
11/05
7.7
92
11/12
-0.0
49
11/16
-2.0
34
09/08
-2.3
32
09/15
0.9
54
09/23
6.2
85
09/29
3.1
70
10/06
10.7
98
10/13
1.8
61
10/20
-1.6
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Eagles Offense vs Bengals Defense
Eagles logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
5
25
Yards / Game
8
24
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
2
19

EPA

EPA / Play
7
28
EPA / Pass
7
17
EPA / Rush
4
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
10
Interceptions / Game
3
9
Fumbles / Game
8
8
Turnover EPA / Game
31
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
23
4th Down Efficiency
3
19
RZ Efficiency
10
30
Bengals Offense vs Eagles Defense
Bengals logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
7
1
Yards / Game
9
1
Passing Yards / Game
1
14
Rushing Yards / Game
30
4

EPA

EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
5
1
EPA / Rush
14
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
12
Interceptions / Game
9
6
Fumbles / Game
27
1
Turnover EPA / Game
18
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
8
4th Down Efficiency
21
21
RZ Efficiency
5
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/25
8
W
L
O
12/31
-4
L
L
O
01/07
-17
L
L
U
01/15
-23
L
L
U
09/06
5
W
W
O
09/16
-1
L
L
U
09/22
3
W
W
U
09/29
-17
L
L
O
10/13
4
W
L
U
10/20
25
W
W
U
CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-23
L
L
O
12/31
-8
L
L
U
01/07
17
W
W
O
09/08
-6
L
L
U
09/15
-1
L
W
O
09/23
-5
L
L
O
09/29
10
W
W
O
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/13
10
W
W
U
10/20
7
W
W
U