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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ saints week 16, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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MIA logo
MIADolphins
7-7
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
3
NOSaints
7-7
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
4
0
7
3
14
Saints
0
3
0
0
3

Spread

MIA logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
37.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
259
164
Total Plays
59
51
Yards / Play
4.4
3.2
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.69
Passing Yards
173
81
Comp/Att
19/26(73%)
12/20(60%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.12
-1.49
Rushing Yards
86
83
Rush Attempts
30
23
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.32
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
16
10
Passing 1st downs
10
5
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
33%
0%
3rd Down Conversions
5
--
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.14
-9.22
Sacks
3
8
Sack Yards
-25
-54
Sack EPA
-5.57
-16.73
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
65
62
Penalty EPA
-6.45
-8.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model53.7%
Spread Pick
NO logo
Saints+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,465
Home Field
+55.7
Base HFA
+36.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.7
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
-108.1
Home QB Adjustment
-94.6
Away QB Adjustment
+13.6
Market Regression
-91.2
Final Difference
-25.8
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
Value
Ptile
01/03
-0.4
43
09/12
-2.0
38
09/19
-7.9
8
10/17
4.8
83
10/24
5.6
86
10/31
-2.9
32
11/21
3.4
77
11/28
2.6
72
12/05
2.8
74
12/19
-4.7
21
I. Book headshot

I. Book

Proj. Value
-5.4
Team Elo Adj
-94.6
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Saints Defense
Dolphins logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
25
6
Passing Yards / Game
27
13
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4

EPA

EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
19
3
EPA / Rush
29
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
18
Interceptions / Game
14
6
Fumbles / Game
25
18
Turnover EPA / Game
16
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
5
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
15
1
Saints Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Saints logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
19
15
Yards / Game
28
16
Passing Yards / Game
31
18
Rushing Yards / Game
16
13

EPA

EPA / Play
28
11
EPA / Pass
24
8
EPA / Rush
27
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
12
Interceptions / Game
12
14
Fumbles / Game
3
3
Turnover EPA / Game
18
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
19
4th Down Efficiency
17
23
RZ Efficiency
16
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
-28
L
L
O
10/17
-3
L
L
U
10/24
-2
L
L
O
10/31
-15
L
P
U
11/07
8
W
W
U
11/11
12
W
W
U
11/21
7
W
W
U
11/28
23
W
W
O
12/05
11
W
W
U
12/19
7
W
L
O
NO logo

Saints

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/10
11
W
W
O
10/25
3
W
L
U
10/31
9
W
W
O
11/07
-2
L
L
O
11/14
-2
L
W
P
11/21
-11
L
L
O
11/25
-25
L
L
U
12/02
-10
L
L
U
12/12
21
W
W
U
12/19
9
W
W
U