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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ raiders week 12, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
5-5
33
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
10 mph
17
OAKRaiders
5-5
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
54°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
10
3
10
10
33
Raiders
7
7
0
3
17

Spread

MIA logo
+3

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
471
263
Total Plays
82
45
Yards / Play
5.7
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.23
Passing Yards
285
247
Comp/Att
17/30(57%)
17/32(53%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.38
-0.14
Rushing Yards
186
16
Rush Attempts
49
12
Yards / Rush
3.8
1.3
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.83
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
24
11
Passing 1st downs
13
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
47%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
19
9
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.46
-12.84
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-22
-5
Sack EPA
-5.68
-0.81
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
35
20
Penalty EPA
-4.54
-3.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.0
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model47.1%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+9.7%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-111
Home nfelo
1,404
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-40.3
Home QB Adjustment
-27.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.7
Market Regression
+40.9
Final Difference
-20.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

C. Henne headshot

C. Henne

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+12.7
Value
Ptile
12/27
1.8
62
01/03
-1.4
40
09/12
-2.3
33
09/19
-2.9
30
09/26
4.3
78
10/04
0.7
53
10/17
3.2
71
10/24
1.9
60
10/31
-1.0
43
11/07
-5.3
16
B. Gradkowski headshot

B. Gradkowski

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-27.6
Value
Ptile
12/10
-2.4
34
12/17
-4.6
20
12/28
-11.6
2
11/22
-0.4
47
11/26
-0.5
46
12/06
6.9
88
12/13
-2.4
35
09/26
-3.1
29
10/03
-2.5
31
10/10
-5.0
18

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Raiders Defense
Dolphins logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
30
20
Yards / Game
21
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
9
Rushing Yards / Game
22
29

EPA

EPA / Play
25
19
EPA / Pass
20
11
EPA / Rush
26
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
6
Interceptions / Game
24
26
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
15
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
6
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
14
17
Raiders Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Raiders logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
5
13
Yards / Game
10
6
Passing Yards / Game
18
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
7

EPA

EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
22
24
EPA / Rush
5
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
16
28
Fumbles / Game
22
17
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
10
4th Down Efficiency
22
5
RZ Efficiency
18
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
5
W
W
U
09/19
4
W
W
U
09/26
-8
L
L
O
10/04
-27
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
U
10/24
-1
L
W
O
10/31
8
W
W
U
11/07
-16
L
L
U
11/14
12
W
W
O
11/18
-16
L
L
U
OAK logo

Raiders

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-25
L
L
O
09/19
2
W
L
U
09/26
-1
L
W
O
10/03
-7
L
L
O
10/10
8
W
W
O
10/17
-8
L
W
U
10/24
45
W
W
O
10/31
30
W
W
U
11/07
3
W
W
O
11/21
-32
L
L
U