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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. dolphins @ jets week 13, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIA logo
MIADolphins
5-6
23
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
4 mph
3
NYJJets
5-6
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
48°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Dolphins
0
6
14
3
23
Jets
0
0
3
0
3

Spread

MIA logo
+0

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
453
177
Total Plays
80
54
Yards / Play
5.7
3.3
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.40
Passing Yards
328
78
Comp/Att
28/43(65%)
13/28(46%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
2.8
EPA / Pass
+0.30
-0.61
Rushing Yards
125
99
Rush Attempts
36
22
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.25
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
25
10
Passing 1st downs
20
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
44%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
7
2
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Dolphins logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.19
-9.38
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-3
-30
Sack EPA
-0.67
-6.26
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
28
25
Penalty EPA
-2.61
-3.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-10
Home nfelo
1,417
Away nfelo
1,455
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-28.3
Home QB Adjustment
-27.1
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
-15.3
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
Value
Ptile
09/15
-0.4
47
09/22
-2.8
34
09/30
-3.4
28
10/06
-3.2
29
10/20
-3.0
31
10/27
-8.0
8
10/31
1.0
56
11/11
-1.0
44
11/17
-2.7
34
11/24
3.4
73
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-27.1
Value
Ptile
09/12
-12.1
2
09/22
4.7
83
09/29
-3.8
26
10/07
2.0
64
10/13
-7.2
10
10/20
-1.3
43
10/27
-6.6
13
11/03
-3.4
28
11/17
-15.3
0
11/24
-10.7
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Dolphins Offense vs Jets Defense
Dolphins logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
26
19
Yards / Game
27
11
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
2

EPA

EPA / Play
20
16
EPA / Pass
20
25
EPA / Rush
28
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
6
Interceptions / Game
20
22
Fumbles / Game
9
32
Turnover EPA / Game
21
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
13
4th Down Efficiency
31
10
RZ Efficiency
11
4
Jets Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Jets logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
29
8
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
32
16
Rushing Yards / Game
6
24

EPA

EPA / Play
29
14
EPA / Pass
30
11
EPA / Rush
18
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
1
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
5
30
Turnover EPA / Game
6
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
15
4th Down Efficiency
32
21
RZ Efficiency
26
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
4
W
W
O
09/22
4
W
W
O
09/30
-21
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/20
-2
L
L
O
10/27
-10
L
L
U
10/31
2
W
W
P
11/11
-3
L
L
O
11/17
4
W
W
U
11/24
-4
L
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
-3
L
W
U
09/22
7
W
W
O
09/29
-25
L
L
O
10/07
2
W
W
O
10/13
-13
L
L
U
10/20
3
W
W
O
10/27
-40
L
L
O
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/17
-23
L
L
O
11/24
-16
L
L
U