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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ eagles week 7, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
3-3
17
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
60°F
13 mph
3
PHIEagles
3-3
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
60°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
3
7
7
17
Eagles
0
0
0
3
3

Spread

DAL logo
+3

Total

UNDER
55

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
368
278
Total Plays
75
75
Yards / Play
4.9
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.26
Passing Yards
294
194
Comp/Att
28/47(60%)
22/49(45%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
4.0
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.45
Rushing Yards
74
84
Rush Attempts
26
23
Yards / Rush
2.8
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
22
19
Passing 1st downs
18
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
31%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
18
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.80
-11.01
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-23
-15
Sack EPA
-3.90
-3.27
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
75
33
Penalty EPA
-8.24
-6.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model56.3%
Spread Pick
DAL logo
Cowboys+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+10
Home nfelo
1,552
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-63.9
Home QB Adjustment
-49.7
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
44.1
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
Value
Ptile
12/09
-1.5
39
12/16
8.3
93
12/23
8.7
94
12/30
-6.0
13
09/08
2.8
69
09/15
3.3
72
09/22
4.4
80
09/29
2.9
70
10/06
11.8
98
10/13
-3.1
30
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-49.7
Value
Ptile
11/18
-12.5
1
11/26
-2.4
34
12/02
2.0
62
12/09
4.3
77
12/13
-3.1
29
12/23
-0.8
44
10/13
8.8
93

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cowboys logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
17
30
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
25
13

EPA

EPA / Play
6
21
EPA / Pass
11
20
EPA / Rush
3
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
9
Interceptions / Game
9
6
Fumbles / Game
13
3
Turnover EPA / Game
25
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
24
4th Down Efficiency
5
11
RZ Efficiency
3
12
Eagles Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Eagles logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
6
26
Yards / Game
2
32
Passing Yards / Game
4
25
Rushing Yards / Game
1
26

EPA

EPA / Play
4
25
EPA / Pass
5
24
EPA / Rush
2
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
26
Interceptions / Game
3
16
Fumbles / Game
12
5
Turnover EPA / Game
23
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
11
19
RZ Efficiency
13
28

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

5-5
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
1
W
W
U
12/16
3
W
W
O
12/23
-3
L
L
O
12/30
-10
L
L
U
09/08
5
W
W
O
09/15
-1
L
W
U
09/22
24
W
W
U
09/29
-9
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
W
O
10/13
15
W
W
U
PHI logo

Eagles

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
2
W
W
U
12/13
-21
L
L
O
12/23
-7
L
L
O
12/30
-35
L
L
O
09/09
6
W
W
O
09/15
-3
L
L
O
09/19
-10
L
L
U
09/29
-32
L
L
O
10/06
15
W
W
O
10/13
11
W
W
O