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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ dolphins week 11, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
2-7
24
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
74°F
10 mph
14
MIADolphins
4-5
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
74°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
0
8
0
10
18
Dolphins
0
7
7
0
14

Spread

DAL logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
386
210
Total Plays
68
41
Yards / Play
5.7
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.26
Passing Yards
220
140
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.24
Rushing Yards
166
70
Rush Attempts
38
14
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
22
9
Passing 1st downs
11
6
Rushing 1st downs
10
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
14
10
Red Zone %
33%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
1
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.48
-5.34
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-7
-48
Sack EPA
-2.22
-2.38
Penalties
10
9
Penalty Yards
79
74
Penalty EPA
-1.06
-3.79

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-13
Home nfelo
1,462
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+95.2
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-41.1
Home QB Adjustment
-1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+39.5
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+39.5
Value
Ptile
11/23
5.9
85
11/27
-8.7
7
12/04
4.0
77
12/14
3.3
73
12/21
9.9
96
12/28
2.3
67
01/04
-1.8
37
01/11
0.4
52
09/13
8.5
95
09/20
-2.6
32
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
Value
Ptile
12/28
-5.4
18
09/13
-1.8
37
09/20
7.0
91
09/27
-4.0
22
10/04
-7.6
5
10/18
1.5
62
10/25
6.4
88
10/29
-6.9
7
11/08
2.9
72
11/15
-2.3
34

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Cowboys logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
31
18
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
27
5
Rushing Yards / Game
8
28

EPA

EPA / Play
25
22
EPA / Pass
31
31
EPA / Rush
5
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
7
Interceptions / Game
32
17
Fumbles / Game
21
31
Turnover EPA / Game
1
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
28
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Dolphins Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Dolphins logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
27
16
Yards / Game
27
16
Passing Yards / Game
8
14
Rushing Yards / Game
23
22

EPA

EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
20
21
EPA / Rush
17
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
21
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
3
32
Turnover EPA / Game
23
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
17
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
19
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/11
-5
L
W
U
09/13
1
W
L
O
09/20
10
W
W
U
09/27
-11
L
L
O
10/04
-6
L
L
U
10/11
-24
L
L
U
10/25
-7
L
L
O
11/01
-1
L
W
U
11/08
-6
L
L
O
11/15
-4
L
L
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-13
L
L
O
09/13
7
W
W
U
09/20
-3
L
L
O
09/27
-27
L
L
O
10/04
-13
L
L
U
10/18
28
W
W
O
10/25
18
W
W
O
10/29
-29
L
L
U
11/08
-16
L
L
O
11/15
1
W
W
U