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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ commanders week 14, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DAL logo
DALCowboys
8-4
27
TBD
FedExField
48°F
17 mph
20
WASCommanders
6-6
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
48°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cowboys
12
6
3
0
21
Commanders
0
0
8
6
14

Spread

DAL logo
-6.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
325
226
Total Plays
79
64
Yards / Play
4.1
3.5
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.44
Passing Yards
201
124
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
15/35(43%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
3.5
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.94
Rushing Yards
124
102
Rush Attempts
36
24
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
11
7
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
39%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
18
14
Red Zone %
17%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-10.62
-21.98
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-10
-51
Sack EPA
-4.90
-17.13
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
60
65
Penalty EPA
-6.94
-9.01

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model64.9%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+40.7
Base HFA
+37.8
Divisional Adj
-17.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.2
Time Adj
+6.8
Net QB Adjustment
-42.7
Home QB Adjustment
-38.8
Away QB Adjustment
+3.9
Market Regression
+12.8
Final Difference
-107.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.9
Value
Ptile
09/19
-0.6
48
09/27
1.2
61
10/03
7.2
91
10/10
2.5
71
10/17
11.6
98
11/07
-2.3
36
11/14
6.6
90
11/21
-10.4
4
11/25
6.0
87
12/02
-1.6
41
T. Heinicke headshot

T. Heinicke

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-38.8
Value
Ptile
09/26
0.2
55
10/03
6.3
89
10/10
-5.1
19
10/17
-3.8
25
10/24
3.6
79
10/31
-5.4
17
11/14
0.0
54
11/21
3.4
77
11/29
-0.4
49
12/05
-0.1
52

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
1
25
Yards / Game
2
22
Passing Yards / Game
7
22
Rushing Yards / Game
9
8

EPA

EPA / Play
6
27
EPA / Pass
4
25
EPA / Rush
20
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
10
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
12
11
Turnover EPA / Game
20
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
31
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
5
18
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
21
18
Passing Yards / Game
18
9
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20

EPA

EPA / Play
21
2
EPA / Pass
25
1
EPA / Rush
14
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
20
Interceptions / Game
21
1
Fumbles / Game
20
9
Turnover EPA / Game
12
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
22
25
RZ Efficiency
26
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
20
W
W
O
10/03
8
W
W
O
10/10
24
W
W
O
10/17
6
W
W
O
10/31
4
W
W
U
11/07
-14
L
L
U
11/14
40
W
W
U
11/21
-10
L
L
U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
10
W
W
U
WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/26
-22
L
L
O
10/03
4
W
W
O
10/10
-11
L
L
O
10/17
-18
L
L
U
10/24
-14
L
L
U
10/31
-7
L
L
U
11/14
10
W
W
U
11/21
6
W
W
O
11/29
2
W
W
U
12/05
2
W
W
U