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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cowboys @ commanders week 11, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DAL logo
DALCowboys
5-4
27
TBD
FedExField
62°F
4 mph
24
WASCommanders
3-6
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
62°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Cowboys
7
3
0
14
3
27
Commanders
0
14
3
7
0
24

Spread

WAS logo
+7

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
353
339
Total Plays
73
65
Yards / Play
4.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.06
Passing Yards
264
279
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.34
+0.14
Rushing Yards
89
60
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
47%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.31
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-28
-13
Sack EPA
-5.70
-4.99
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
48
59
Penalty EPA
-5.41
-6.14

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model69.5%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-109
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+67.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-34.5
Home QB Adjustment
-20.9
Away QB Adjustment
+13.7
Market Regression
+16.7
Final Difference
-143.2
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Value
Ptile
10/25
-1.4
41
09/11
2.5
69
09/18
6.1
86
09/26
-1.8
37
10/02
4.5
79
10/16
2.4
69
10/23
-0.4
49
10/30
-4.9
19
11/06
5.5
84
11/13
9.8
96
R. Grossman headshot

R. Grossman

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-20.9
Value
Ptile
11/09
-0.6
47
12/19
-1.3
41
12/26
-4.6
20
01/02
2.4
65
09/11
1.7
64
09/18
-0.6
47
09/26
-1.8
37
10/02
-5.6
16
10/16
-12.2
1
11/13
-6.1
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Cowboys Offense vs Commanders Defense
Cowboys logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
15
21
Yards / Game
10
12
Passing Yards / Game
7
21
Rushing Yards / Game
17
17

EPA

EPA / Play
11
20
EPA / Pass
6
19
EPA / Rush
22
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
12
Interceptions / Game
7
22
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
17
4th Down Efficiency
9
12
RZ Efficiency
19
6
Commanders Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Commanders logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
26
15
Yards / Game
16
14
Passing Yards / Game
8
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
6

EPA

EPA / Play
22
17
EPA / Pass
22
18
EPA / Rush
15
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
14
Interceptions / Game
29
18
Fumbles / Game
24
12
Turnover EPA / Game
6
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
28
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DAL logo

Cowboys

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
1
W
L
U
09/11
-3
L
W
O
09/18
3
W
P
O
09/26
2
W
L
U
10/02
-4
L
L
O
10/16
-4
L
W
U
10/23
27
W
W
U
10/30
-27
L
L
U
11/06
10
W
L
U
11/13
37
W
W
O
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-3
L
W
U
09/11
14
W
W
O
09/18
1
W
L
U
09/26
-2
L
W
U
10/02
7
W
W
U
10/16
-7
L
L
U
10/23
-13
L
L
O
10/30
-23
L
L
U
11/06
-8
L
L
U
11/13
-11
L
L
U