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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ saints week 15, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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WAS logo
WASCommanders
8-5
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
19
NOSaints
5-8
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
7
7
3
3
20
Saints
0
0
7
12
19

Spread

NO logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
326
245
Total Plays
74
52
Yards / Play
4.4
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.02
Passing Yards
189
176
Comp/Att
25/31(81%)
15/33(45%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.04
-0.03
Rushing Yards
137
69
Rush Attempts
35
16
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
23
17
Passing 1st downs
11
11
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
53%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
9
3
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.61
Sacks
8
3
Sack Yards
-37
-29
Sack EPA
-11.51
-5.71
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
84
36
Penalty EPA
-10.67
-5.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.9%
Model74.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-175
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+15.5
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.8
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
-7.1
Net QB Adjustment
-110.2
Home QB Adjustment
-78.1
Away QB Adjustment
+32.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-189.9
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

J. Daniels headshot

J. Daniels

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+32.2
Value
Ptile
09/29
7.2
91
10/06
1.8
61
10/13
3.7
73
10/20
-2.8
28
10/27
4.2
76
11/03
4.7
78
11/10
-5.1
15
11/14
-2.7
29
11/24
4.0
75
12/01
6.0
84
J. Haener headshot

J. Haener

Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-78.1
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Saints Defense
Commanders logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
6
18
Yards / Game
5
30
Passing Yards / Game
18
28
Rushing Yards / Game
4
30

EPA

EPA / Play
4
13
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
2
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
20
Interceptions / Game
8
12
Fumbles / Game
9
27
Turnover EPA / Game
26
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
21
4th Down Efficiency
1
10
RZ Efficiency
6
14
Saints Offense vs Commanders Defense
Saints logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
24
22
Yards / Game
21
17
Passing Yards / Game
21
20
Rushing Yards / Game
15
31

EPA

EPA / Play
26
29
EPA / Pass
25
20
EPA / Rush
10
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
4
6
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
16
4th Down Efficiency
17
29
RZ Efficiency
12
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
28
W
W
O
10/06
21
W
W
O
10/13
-7
L
L
O
10/20
33
W
W
U
10/27
3
W
W
U
11/03
5
W
W
O
11/10
-1
L
L
O
11/14
-8
L
L
U
11/24
-8
L
L
O
12/01
23
W
W
O
NO logo

Saints

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/29
-2
L
W
O
10/07
-13
L
L
U
10/13
-24
L
L
O
10/17
-23
L
L
O
10/27
-18
L
L
U
11/03
-1
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/17
21
W
W
O
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
3
W
L
U