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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ panthers week 11, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
3-6
27
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
0
21
CARPanthers
5-5
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
54°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Commanders
0
14
7
6
27
Panthers
7
7
0
7
21

Spread

WAS logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
369
297
Total Plays
65
49
Yards / Play
5.7
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.09
Passing Yards
179
186
Comp/Att
16/22(73%)
21/27(78%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.62
+0.10
Rushing Yards
190
111
Rush Attempts
40
21
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.3
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
10
10
Rushing 1st downs
12
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
6
1
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.65
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-27
-3
Sack EPA
-5.45
-1.79
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
69
65
Penalty EPA
-9.92
-6.31

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,487
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+39.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+93.0
Home QB Adjustment
+35.8
Away QB Adjustment
-57.1
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

T. Heinicke headshot

T. Heinicke

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-57.1
Value
Ptile
12/23
-2.9
28
01/09
2.8
65
09/16
4.9
83
09/26
0.2
55
10/03
6.3
89
10/10
-5.1
19
10/17
-3.8
25
10/24
3.6
79
10/31
-5.4
17
11/14
0.0
54
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+35.8
Value
Ptile
11/01
1.4
53
11/09
6.0
83
11/15
1.3
53
11/22
1.7
56
11/29
-11.5
2
12/06
1.4
54
12/10
-8.3
6
12/20
-2.3
27
12/28
-3.7
21
01/03
5.3
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Panthers Defense
Commanders logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
20
Yards / Game
21
2
Passing Yards / Game
18
1
Rushing Yards / Game
11
18

EPA

EPA / Play
21
7
EPA / Pass
25
12
EPA / Rush
14
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
5
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
12
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
26
31
Panthers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Panthers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
29
25
Yards / Game
30
22
Passing Yards / Game
29
22
Rushing Yards / Game
20
8

EPA

EPA / Play
32
27
EPA / Pass
32
25
EPA / Rush
17
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
10
Interceptions / Game
32
22
Fumbles / Game
13
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
31
4th Down Efficiency
31
22
RZ Efficiency
25
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
-8
L
W
O
09/12
-4
L
L
U
09/16
1
W
L
O
09/26
-22
L
L
O
10/03
4
W
W
O
10/10
-11
L
L
O
10/17
-18
L
L
U
10/24
-14
L
L
U
10/31
-7
L
L
U
11/14
10
W
W
U
CAR logo

Panthers

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
5
W
W
U
09/19
19
W
W
U
09/23
15
W
W
U
10/03
-8
L
L
O
10/10
-3
L
L
U
10/17
-6
L
L
O
10/24
-22
L
L
U
10/31
6
W
W
U
11/07
-18
L
L
U
11/14
24
W
W
O