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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. commanders @ eagles week 4, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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WAS logo
WASCommanders
2-1
31
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
0
34
PHIEagles
3-0
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Commanders
7
10
0
14
0
31
Eagles
7
3
11
10
3
34

Spread

WAS logo
+9

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
365
417
Total Plays
74
68
Yards / Play
4.9
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.19
+0.24
Passing Yards
258
311
Comp/Att
29/41(71%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.19
+0.29
Rushing Yards
107
106
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
26
23
Passing 1st downs
12
14
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
47%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Commanders logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-32
-8
Sack EPA
-6.85
-3.04
Penalties
7
11
Penalty Yards
41
81
Penalty EPA
-10.50
-9.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+192
Home nfelo
1,612
Away nfelo
1,472
Home Field
+23.6
Base HFA
+42.9
Divisional Adj
-19.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+28.1
Home QB Adjustment
+1.8
Away QB Adjustment
-26.4
Market Regression
+31.5
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

S. Howell headshot

S. Howell

Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-26.4
Value
Ptile
01/08
0.1
53
09/10
-5.5
16
09/17
3.3
72
09/24
-15.6
0
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.8
Value
Ptile
12/04
10.8
97
12/11
6.7
91
12/18
5.3
86
01/08
-6.1
13
01/21
3.4
78
01/29
0.1
54
02/12
12.2
98
09/10
0.1
49
09/14
0.7
54
09/25
0.7
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Commanders Offense vs Eagles Defense
Commanders logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
25
30
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
6
32
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11

EPA

EPA / Play
26
30
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
10
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
22
Interceptions / Game
30
26
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
2
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
30
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
6
29
Eagles Offense vs Commanders Defense
Eagles logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
7
32
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
10
7
Rushing Yards / Game
9
27

EPA

EPA / Play
7
32
EPA / Pass
10
32
EPA / Rush
6
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
2
Interceptions / Game
24
29
Fumbles / Game
25
13
Turnover EPA / Game
8
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
9
19

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

WAS logo

Commanders

5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
13
W
W
U
11/27
6
W
W
U
12/04
0
T
L
P
12/18
-8
L
L
U
12/24
-17
L
L
O
01/01
-14
L
L
U
01/08
20
W
W
U
09/10
4
W
L
U
09/17
2
W
W
O
09/24
-34
L
L
U
PHI logo

Eagles

7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
5
W
L
U
12/24
-6
L
L
O
01/01
-10
L
L
U
01/08
6
W
L
U
01/21
31
W
W
U
01/29
24
W
W
U
02/12
-3
L
L
O
09/10
5
W
W
O
09/14
6
W
P
O
09/25
14
W
W
U