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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ jets week 6, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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IND logo
INDColts
1-4
34
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
7 mph
42
NYJJets
2-3
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
6
7
14
34
Jets
4
13
10
9
36

Spread

NYJ logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
428
374
Total Plays
66
68
Yards / Play
6.5
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.03
Passing Yards
--
267
Comp/Att
23/43(53%)
24/30(80%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.9
EPA / Pass
-0.10
+0.28
Rushing Yards
127
107
Rush Attempts
23
36
Yards / Rush
5.5
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
24
18
Passing 1st downs
15
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
60%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
6
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-23.29
-8.68
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-2.32
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
66
49
Penalty EPA
-7.47
-5.59

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYJ logo
NYJJetsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+34
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,403
Home Field
+57.6
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-48.5
Home QB Adjustment
-13.3
Away QB Adjustment
+35.2
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+35.2
Value
Ptile
12/05
10.2
96
12/11
-0.1
47
12/18
6.7
89
12/24
4.1
79
01/01
0.6
54
09/09
5.3
82
09/16
-1.6
36
09/23
0.3
49
09/30
9.1
94
10/04
4.4
77
S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-13.3
Value
Ptile
09/10
-1.3
37
09/16
-2.7
30
09/20
-9.8
3
09/30
-3.9
22
10/07
-1.2
38

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Jets Defense
Colts logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
8
29
Yards / Game
7
25
Passing Yards / Game
24
11
Rushing Yards / Game
16
26

EPA

EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
10
20
EPA / Rush
18
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
19
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
21
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
2
4th Down Efficiency
19
25
RZ Efficiency
7
9
Jets Offense vs Colts Defense
Jets logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
29
11
Passing Yards / Game
23
4
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9

EPA

EPA / Play
29
8
EPA / Pass
27
6
EPA / Rush
31
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
31
Interceptions / Game
29
13
Fumbles / Game
22
12
Turnover EPA / Game
4
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
18
4th Down Efficiency
19
7
RZ Efficiency
30
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
-20
L
L
U
12/10
-6
L
L
U
12/14
-12
L
L
U
12/23
-7
L
W
U
12/31
9
W
W
U
09/09
-11
L
L
O
09/16
12
W
W
U
09/23
-4
L
W
U
09/30
-3
L
L
O
10/04
-14
L
L
O
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
7
W
W
O
12/10
-23
L
L
U
12/17
-12
L
W
O
12/24
-7
L
W
U
12/31
-20
L
L
U
09/10
31
W
W
O
09/16
-8
L
L
U
09/20
-4
L
L
U
09/30
-19
L
L
O
10/07
18
W
W
O