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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ giants week 17, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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IND logo
INDColts
4-10
10
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
14 mph
38
NYGGiants
8-6
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
52°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
3
0
7
0
10
Giants
0
18
7
7
32

Spread

NYG logo
-5.5

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
252
394
Total Plays
56
61
Yards / Play
4.5
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.24
Passing Yards
124
--
Comp/Att
17/27(63%)
19/24(79%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.27
Rushing Yards
128
217
Rush Attempts
27
37
Yards / Rush
4.7
5.9
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
14
26
Passing 1st downs
7
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
14
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
25%
57%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
7
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.96
-5.33
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-17
--
Sack EPA
-2.88
--
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
60
20
Penalty EPA
-6.72
-3.54

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market68.0%
Model63.1%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts+5.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
55.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+52
Home nfelo
1,390
Away nfelo
1,385
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+41.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
+14.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
93.3
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+14.5
Value
Ptile
12/01
-10.4
4
10/04
-0.8
39
10/08
-1.4
34
10/18
-0.5
42
10/26
-5.3
14
11/01
-2.4
27
11/08
3.1
68
11/16
-8.4
5
12/26
-2.0
38
12/26
-15.8
0
D. Jones headshot

D. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Value
Ptile
10/16
-3.0
29
10/23
8.2
94
10/30
-7.3
8
11/13
1.5
64
11/20
1.4
62
11/24
0.7
56
12/04
4.2
81
12/11
1.8
67
12/18
-0.0
52
12/24
2.5
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Giants Defense
Colts logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
30
22
Yards / Game
27
25
Passing Yards / Game
18
2
Rushing Yards / Game
23
28

EPA

EPA / Play
32
31
EPA / Pass
30
21
EPA / Rush
30
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
32
32
Fumbles / Game
32
3
Turnover EPA / Game
1
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
5
4th Down Efficiency
23
29
RZ Efficiency
29
10
Giants Offense vs Colts Defense
Giants logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
18
28
Yards / Game
19
15
Passing Yards / Game
25
18
Rushing Yards / Game
6
20

EPA

EPA / Play
8
10
EPA / Pass
17
16
EPA / Rush
3
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
2
Interceptions / Game
1
24
Fumbles / Game
10
10
Turnover EPA / Game
32
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
9
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
5
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
7
W
W
O
10/23
-9
L
L
U
10/30
-1
L
L
U
11/06
-23
L
L
U
11/13
5
W
W
O
11/20
-1
L
W
U
11/28
-7
L
L
O
12/04
-35
L
L
O
12/17
-3
L
W
O
12/26
-17
L
L
U
NYG logo

Giants

4-5-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
4
W
W
U
10/23
6
W
W
U
10/30
-14
L
L
U
11/13
8
W
W
U
11/20
-13
L
L
O
11/24
-8
L
W
O
12/04
0
T
W
P
12/11
-26
L
L
O
12/18
8
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
W
O