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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ cowboys week 16, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
10-4
7
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
42
DALCowboys
10-4
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
0
0
7
7
Cowboys
14
14
7
7
42

Spread

DAL logo
-3

Total

UNDER
53

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
229
377
Total Plays
56
62
Yards / Play
4.1
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.44
+0.23
Passing Yards
228
250
Comp/Att
30/44(68%)
19/21(90%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
11.9
EPA / Pass
-0.46
+1.27
Rushing Yards
1
127
Rush Attempts
10
40
Yards / Rush
0.1
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.68
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
--
8
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-12.81
-3.41
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-7
-11
Sack EPA
-6.70
-2.00
Penalties
8
7
Penalty Yards
55
67
Penalty EPA
-7.71
-10.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+58
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,581
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-0.4
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
Value
Ptile
10/05
3.5
74
10/09
2.7
69
10/19
4.9
81
10/26
4.6
81
11/03
7.5
90
11/16
2.7
69
11/23
0.3
51
11/30
10.0
96
12/07
-0.6
46
12/14
-2.6
31
A. Romo headshot

A. Romo

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Value
Ptile
09/28
7.4
90
10/05
4.2
78
10/12
3.3
73
10/19
4.1
78
10/27
-5.1
19
11/09
5.9
85
11/23
5.9
85
11/27
-8.7
7
12/04
4.0
77
12/14
3.3
73

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Colts logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
6
15
Yards / Game
3
21
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
22
8

EPA

EPA / Play
10
21
EPA / Pass
9
19
EPA / Rush
30
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
18
Interceptions / Game
24
12
Fumbles / Game
30
2
Turnover EPA / Game
5
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
29
4th Down Efficiency
22
18
RZ Efficiency
12
25
Cowboys Offense vs Colts Defense
Cowboys logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
5
18
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
15
3
Rushing Yards / Game
2
19

EPA

EPA / Play
2
11
EPA / Pass
1
5
EPA / Rush
8
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
28
Interceptions / Game
3
25
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
22
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
3
4th Down Efficiency
8
5
RZ Efficiency
3
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
7
W
W
U
10/09
5
W
W
O
10/19
27
W
W
U
10/26
-17
L
L
O
11/03
16
W
W
O
11/16
-22
L
L
O
11/23
20
W
W
U
11/30
22
W
W
O
12/07
1
W
L
U
12/14
7
W
P
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
3
W
L
U
10/12
7
W
W
O
10/19
10
W
W
O
10/27
-3
L
L
U
11/02
-11
L
L
P
11/09
14
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
L
O
11/27
-23
L
L
U
12/04
13
W
W
O
12/14
11
W
W
O