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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ browns week 5, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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IND logo
INDColts
3-1
23
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
64°F
16 mph
32
CLEBrowns
3-1
CLE logo
TBD
FirstEnergy Stadium
64°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
7
3
10
3
23
Browns
3
17
1
3
24

Spread

CLE logo
-1

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Browns logo
Total Yards
308
385
Total Plays
52
72
Yards / Play
5.9
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.09
Passing Yards
240
261
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.21
+0.11
Rushing Yards
68
124
Rush Attempts
18
33
Yards / Rush
3.8
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.25
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Browns logo
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
10
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
36%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Browns logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.91
-8.51
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-3
-4
Sack EPA
-1.07
-1.12
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
34
--
Penalty EPA
-5.10
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
+2.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model43.6%
Spread Pick
IND logo
Colts+1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-93
Home nfelo
1,509
Away nfelo
1,599
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.8
Home QB Adjustment
-2.5
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
+0.5
Final Difference
-44.9
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Value
Ptile
11/18
-6.9
12
12/01
0.2
53
12/08
6.5
89
12/15
-2.5
34
12/22
-0.4
50
12/29
0.1
53
09/13
4.1
74
09/20
-1.3
34
09/27
2.3
62
10/04
-1.6
31
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-2.5
Value
Ptile
11/24
4.1
79
12/01
-6.2
15
12/08
-6.8
13
12/15
0.1
52
12/22
1.3
63
12/29
-8.4
8
09/13
-4.0
19
09/17
1.2
52
09/27
-1.2
35
10/04
-1.3
35

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Browns Defense
Colts logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
8
22
Yards / Game
7
21
Passing Yards / Game
22
24
Rushing Yards / Game
9
9

EPA

EPA / Play
9
22
EPA / Pass
7
23
EPA / Rush
15
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
28
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
1
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
20
16
Browns Offense vs Colts Defense
Browns logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
13
11
Yards / Game
16
9
Passing Yards / Game
32
25
Rushing Yards / Game
4
2

EPA

EPA / Play
8
8
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
10
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
31
Interceptions / Game
4
11
Fumbles / Game
18
11
Turnover EPA / Game
23
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
18
4th Down Efficiency
27
6
RZ Efficiency
4
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

4-6
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-3
L
W
U
12/01
-14
L
L
O
12/08
-3
L
P
O
12/16
-27
L
L
U
12/22
32
W
W
U
12/29
-18
L
L
O
09/13
-7
L
L
O
09/20
17
W
W
U
09/27
29
W
W
U
10/04
8
W
W
U
CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
17
W
W
O
12/01
-7
L
L
U
12/08
8
W
W
O
12/15
-14
L
L
O
12/22
-16
L
L
U
12/29
-10
L
L
O
09/13
-32
L
L
U
09/17
5
W
L
O
09/27
14
W
W
O
10/04
11
W
W
O