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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. colts @ broncos week 19, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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IND logo
INDColts
12-5
24
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
7 mph
13
DENBroncos
12-4
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
40°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Colts
0
14
7
3
24
Broncos
7
3
0
3
13

Spread

IND logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Colts logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
364
288
Total Plays
71
68
Yards / Play
5.1
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.18
Passing Yards
--
200
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
--
4.3
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.35
Rushing Yards
99
88
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
Colts logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
15
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Colts logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-2.80
-4.35
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-11
Sack EPA
--
-5.36
Penalties
10
2
Penalty Yards
67
--
Penalty EPA
-9.13
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+245
Home nfelo
1,716
Away nfelo
1,585
Home Field
+124.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-33.1
Home QB Adjustment
-24.6
Away QB Adjustment
+8.4
Market Regression
+15.0
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

A. Luck headshot

A. Luck

Proj. Value
+2.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Value
Ptile
10/26
4.6
81
11/03
7.5
90
11/16
2.7
69
11/23
0.3
51
11/30
10.0
96
12/07
-0.6
46
12/14
-2.6
31
12/21
-6.8
12
12/28
0.6
54
01/04
8.1
91
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-24.6
Value
Ptile
10/23
7.6
90
11/02
3.9
77
11/09
8.0
91
11/16
-0.1
49
11/23
9.8
96
11/30
-1.4
40
12/07
-2.6
31
12/14
0.1
50
12/22
-3.1
29
12/28
-1.8
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Colts Offense vs Broncos Defense
Colts logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
6
17
Yards / Game
3
3
Passing Yards / Game
1
5
Rushing Yards / Game
22
2

EPA

EPA / Play
10
10
EPA / Pass
9
9
EPA / Rush
30
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
31
Interceptions / Game
24
6
Fumbles / Game
30
28
Turnover EPA / Game
5
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
26
RZ Efficiency
12
25
Broncos Offense vs Colts Defense
Broncos logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
5
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
3
Rushing Yards / Game
15
19

EPA

EPA / Play
7
11
EPA / Pass
5
5
EPA / Rush
9
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
28
Interceptions / Game
16
25
Fumbles / Game
5
3
Turnover EPA / Game
27
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
3
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
4
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

IND logo

Colts

7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/26
-17
L
L
O
11/03
16
W
W
O
11/16
-22
L
L
O
11/23
20
W
W
U
11/30
22
W
W
O
12/07
1
W
L
U
12/14
7
W
P
U
12/21
-35
L
L
U
12/28
17
W
W
U
01/04
16
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
14
W
W
O
11/02
-22
L
L
O
11/09
24
W
W
O
11/16
-15
L
L
U
11/23
3
W
L
O
11/30
13
W
W
U
12/07
7
W
L
U
12/14
12
W
W
U
12/22
-9
L
L
O
12/28
33
W
W
O