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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ steelers week 4, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
2-1
14
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
59°F
6 mph
43
PITSteelers
2-1
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
59°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
0
0
0
14
14
Steelers
22
7
7
7
43

Spread

PIT logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
357
438
Total Plays
72
56
Yards / Play
5.0
7.8
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.37
Passing Yards
270
289
Comp/Att
30/50(60%)
22/28(79%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
10.3
EPA / Pass
-0.05
+0.74
Rushing Yards
87
149
Rush Attempts
18
26
Yards / Rush
4.8
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
22
18
Passing 1st downs
17
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
47%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
11
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-11.20
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-17
-13
Sack EPA
-4.96
-3.01
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
40
68
Penalty EPA
-3.88
-2.68

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+56
Home nfelo
1,599
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+47.6
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-3.4
Home QB Adjustment
+0.8
Away QB Adjustment
+4.2
Market Regression
-21.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.2
Value
Ptile
12/06
1.3
60
12/13
-1.4
41
12/20
-0.5
48
12/27
1.1
57
01/03
-0.6
47
01/09
-0.3
49
01/16
2.8
71
09/11
6.7
89
09/18
-5.5
13
09/25
1.7
61
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Value
Ptile
12/06
11.2
98
12/13
1.6
62
12/20
5.5
85
12/27
-6.3
10
01/03
4.1
79
01/09
-1.4
40
01/17
1.3
60
09/12
5.0
82
09/18
0.4
53
09/25
-6.0
11

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Steelers Defense
Chiefs logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
10
Yards / Game
21
10
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
19
8

EPA

EPA / Play
12
18
EPA / Pass
16
15
EPA / Rush
12
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
32
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
23
15
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
19
RZ Efficiency
28
5
Steelers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Steelers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
12
6
Yards / Game
6
23
Passing Yards / Game
25
17
Rushing Yards / Game
8
27

EPA

EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
3
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
23
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
4
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
28
4th Down Efficiency
11
15
RZ Efficiency
16
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
14
W
W
O
12/13
7
W
L
U
12/20
20
W
W
O
12/27
4
W
L
U
01/03
6
W
L
U
01/09
30
W
W
U
01/16
-7
L
L
O
09/11
6
W
L
O
09/18
-7
L
L
U
09/25
21
W
W
U
PIT logo

Steelers

7-3
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/06
35
W
W
O
12/13
13
W
W
O
12/20
7
W
L
O
12/27
-3
L
L
U
01/03
16
W
W
U
01/09
2
W
P
U
01/17
-7
L
P
U
09/12
22
W
W
O
09/18
8
W
W
U
09/25
-31
L
L
U