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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chiefs @ chargers week 17, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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KC logo
KCChiefs
11-4
37
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
59°F
10 mph
27
LACChargers
5-10
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
59°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chiefs
3
17
8
3
31
Chargers
3
7
1
10
21

Spread

KC logo
-6

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
365
398
Total Plays
60
64
Yards / Play
6.1
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.01
Passing Yards
262
--
Comp/Att
21/28(75%)
22/38(58%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.37
+0.07
Rushing Yards
103
129
Rush Attempts
31
26
Yards / Rush
3.3
5.0
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
26
26
Passing 1st downs
17
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
67%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
43%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
7
5
Negative Plays
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-11.96
-9.03
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-2
--
Sack EPA
-0.51
--
Penalties
4
10
Penalty Yards
19
50
Penalty EPA
-4.90
-8.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model68.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-106
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,609
Home Field
+42.3
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-25.1
Home QB Adjustment
-17.8
Away QB Adjustment
+7.3
Market Regression
-28.4
Final Difference
-137.4
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

A. Smith headshot

A. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+7.3
Value
Ptile
10/16
0.2
50
10/23
2.3
67
10/30
-3.8
21
11/13
-5.1
15
11/20
5.0
83
11/27
-4.1
19
12/04
2.7
71
12/08
-0.4
46
12/18
-3.9
20
12/25
8.6
94
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-17.8
Value
Ptile
10/13
-0.4
45
10/23
-1.7
36
10/30
-8.5
4
11/06
4.0
78
11/13
-5.3
14
11/27
3.9
77
12/04
-2.7
28
12/11
-9.2
4
12/18
-3.3
25
12/24
0.1
49

Team Matchup Ranks

Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
21
15
Passing Yards / Game
21
23
Rushing Yards / Game
19
12

EPA

EPA / Play
12
13
EPA / Pass
16
13
EPA / Rush
12
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
23
12
Turnover EPA / Game
22
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
17
4th Down Efficiency
4
25
RZ Efficiency
28
14
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
8
6
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
10
17
Rushing Yards / Game
26
27

EPA

EPA / Play
17
9
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
27
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
23
Interceptions / Game
31
3
Fumbles / Game
31
1
Turnover EPA / Game
2
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
28
4th Down Efficiency
14
15
RZ Efficiency
23
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

KC logo

Chiefs

8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
6
W
P
U
10/30
16
W
W
U
11/06
5
W
L
U
11/13
3
W
W
U
11/20
-2
L
L
U
11/27
3
W
W
O
12/04
1
W
W
O
12/08
8
W
W
U
12/18
-2
L
L
U
12/25
23
W
W
O
LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/13
8
W
W
U
10/23
3
W
W
O
10/30
-8
L
L
O
11/06
8
W
W
O
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/27
8
W
W
U
12/04
-7
L
L
P
12/11
-12
L
L
U
12/18
-3
L
L
U
12/24
-3
L
L
U