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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ commanders week 9, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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LAC logo
LACChargers
4-3
24
TBD
FedExField
57°F
20 mph
30
WASCommanders
2-5
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
57°F
20 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Chargers
0
8
0
10
0
18
Commanders
0
7
7
10
6
30

Spread

WAS logo
-1

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
410
500
Total Plays
63
72
Yards / Play
6.5
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.20
Passing Yards
341
--
Comp/Att
29/46(63%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.37
Rushing Yards
69
209
Rush Attempts
16
40
Yards / Rush
4.3
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
25
27
Passing 1st downs
20
12
Rushing 1st downs
4
13
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
3
12
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
67%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.77
-6.42
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
-0.51
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
63
65
Penalty EPA
-5.78
-1.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
WAS logo
WASCommandersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-1.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model49.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,453
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+47.4
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+33.5
Net QB Adjustment
-34.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.1
Away QB Adjustment
+28.4
Market Regression
-0.5
Final Difference
-0.5
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+28.4
Value
Ptile
12/16
-6.9
10
12/23
-2.7
32
12/30
-0.7
45
09/09
1.7
62
09/15
12.6
98
09/22
1.8
63
09/29
10.9
96
10/06
2.7
69
10/14
1.3
60
10/20
4.8
83
R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.1
Value
Ptile
12/23
-0.2
48
12/30
0.6
54
01/06
-3.0
30
09/09
0.1
50
09/15
4.4
81
09/22
2.0
64
09/29
-0.1
49
10/13
-3.1
31
10/20
7.6
91
10/27
-9.4
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Commanders Defense
Chargers logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
14
30
Yards / Game
8
19
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
13
17

EPA

EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
2
27
EPA / Rush
10
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
5
14
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
4
4th Down Efficiency
1
29
RZ Efficiency
21
29
Commanders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Commanders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
9
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
19
20
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14

EPA

EPA / Play
28
30
EPA / Pass
22
22
EPA / Rush
11
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
28
Interceptions / Game
20
24
Fumbles / Game
29
19
Turnover EPA / Game
7
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
21
4th Down Efficiency
29
15
RZ Efficiency
18
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/16
-24
L
L
U
12/23
10
W
W
O
12/30
3
W
L
O
09/09
-3
L
W
O
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/22
-3
L
P
U
09/29
9
W
W
O
10/06
-10
L
L
U
10/14
10
W
W
U
10/20
18
W
W
U
WAS logo

Commanders

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
7
W
W
O
12/30
10
W
W
U
01/06
-10
L
L
U
09/09
-6
L
L
O
09/15
-18
L
L
O
09/22
-7
L
L
U
09/29
10
W
W
U
10/13
-15
L
L
U
10/20
4
W
W
O
10/27
-24
L
L
O