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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ broncos week 18, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
10-6
28
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
43°F
4 mph
31
DENBroncos
4-12
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
43°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
10
3
8
28
Broncos
7
10
7
7
31

Spread

LAC logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
354
471
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
5.2
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.18
Passing Yards
295
266
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
11.1
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.17
Rushing Yards
59
205
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.42
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-3.67
-5.57
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-17
Sack EPA
-0.98
-4.37
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
34
36
Penalty EPA
-3.66
-2.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model61.2%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+10.1%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-60
Home nfelo
1,461
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+37.7
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
-9.3
Away QB Adjustment
-14.0
Market Regression
+99.4
Final Difference
79.5
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-14.0
Value
Ptile
10/23
1.7
65
11/06
-0.3
50
11/13
-2.2
36
11/20
-1.4
43
11/27
5.5
87
12/04
-3.9
24
12/11
4.4
83
12/18
-5.0
18
12/26
-4.4
21
01/01
5.3
86
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.3
Value
Ptile
10/06
-7.5
8
10/17
-4.1
23
10/30
-3.5
25
11/13
-8.5
4
11/20
-2.3
34
11/27
-5.3
16
12/04
-0.5
48
12/11
-0.2
51
12/25
-10.1
2
01/01
1.1
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
12
12
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10

EPA

EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
17
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
15
30
RZ Efficiency
18
8
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
23
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
21
27

EPA

EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
27
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
14
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-14
L
L
O
11/06
3
W
W
U
11/13
-6
L
W
U
11/20
-3
L
W
O
11/27
1
W
L
O
12/04
-7
L
L
U
12/11
6
W
W
U
12/18
3
W
P
U
12/26
17
W
W
U
01/01
21
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-7
L
L
U
10/30
4
W
W
U
11/13
-7
L
L
U
11/20
-6
L
L
U
11/27
-13
L
L
U
12/04
-1
L
W
U
12/11
-6
L
W
O
12/18
9
W
W
O
12/25
-37
L
L
O
01/01
-3
L
W
O