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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ broncos week 13, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
4-7
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
33°F
7 mph
23
DENBroncos
3-8
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
33°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
10
0
10
20
Broncos
14
3
0
6
23

Spread

DEN logo
+4.5

Total

OVER
39

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
359
218
Total Plays
61
53
Yards / Play
5.9
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.03
Passing Yards
244
--
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.09
Rushing Yards
115
84
Rush Attempts
29
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
17
13
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.11
+1.35
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-8.08
--
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
82
25
Penalty EPA
-8.46
-4.42

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-4.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model62.3%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos+4.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.1%
Cover Probability
54.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-35
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
-11.2
Base HFA
+48.9
Divisional Adj
-22.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-38.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.0
Home QB Adjustment
-15.9
Away QB Adjustment
-18.9
Market Regression
-80.3
Final Difference
-87.5
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.9
Value
Ptile
09/15
-1.1
45
09/22
1.0
60
09/29
4.9
83
10/06
-3.2
30
10/13
0.3
54
10/20
5.1
84
10/27
-1.1
46
11/03
0.6
57
11/07
-12.0
2
11/18
-6.9
12
P. Lock headshot

P. Lock

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
21
8
Yards / Game
10
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
16

EPA

EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
25
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
17
Interceptions / Game
29
25
Fumbles / Game
18
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
15
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
28
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
3
Rushing Yards / Game
20
18

EPA

EPA / Play
24
22
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
18
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
12
21
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
29
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
27
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-3
L
L
U
09/22
-7
L
L
U
09/29
20
W
W
U
10/06
-7
L
L
U
10/13
-7
L
L
U
10/20
-3
L
P
O
10/27
1
W
W
U
11/03
15
W
W
U
11/07
-2
L
L
O
11/18
-7
L
L
U
DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-2
L
W
U
09/22
-11
L
L
O
09/29
-2
L
L
O
10/06
7
W
W
U
10/13
16
W
W
U
10/17
-24
L
L
U
10/27
-2
L
W
U
11/03
5
W
W
O
11/17
-4
L
W
O
11/24
-17
L
L
U