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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ patriots week 4, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
2-1
19
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
4 mph
17
NEPatriots
1-2
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
62°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
3
7
6
19
Patriots
0
7
0
10
17

Spread

NE logo
+7

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
381
294
Total Plays
74
54
Yards / Play
5.1
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.03
-0.06
Passing Yards
261
295
Comp/Att
22/43(51%)
33/42(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
7.0
EPA / Pass
+0.05
-0.02
Rushing Yards
120
-1
Rush Attempts
30
8
Yards / Rush
4.0
-0.1
EPA / Rush
+0.16
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
12
16
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
47%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
9
2
3rd Down Attempts
19
9
Red Zone %
25%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.22
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-8
-25
Sack EPA
-1.31
-5.62
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
74
77
Penalty EPA
-7.38
-7.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model69.5%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-109
Home nfelo
1,526
Away nfelo
1,657
Home Field
+57.4
Base HFA
+42.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-36.2
Home QB Adjustment
-11.8
Away QB Adjustment
+24.4
Market Regression
-8.5
Final Difference
-143.4
Model Spread
+6.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+24.4
Value
Ptile
12/20
2.6
64
12/26
7.4
91
01/03
4.6
77
01/09
2.1
59
01/17
2.3
62
01/24
-1.7
31
02/07
2.6
64
09/09
6.2
89
09/19
4.3
80
09/26
10.9
97
M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-11.8
Value
Ptile
09/12
3.8
79
09/19
-4.4
22
09/26
-3.6
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Buccaneers logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
2
3
Yards / Game
3
7
Passing Yards / Game
9
2
Rushing Yards / Game
26
24

EPA

EPA / Play
4
5
EPA / Pass
6
5
EPA / Rush
11
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
30
Interceptions / Game
9
2
Fumbles / Game
19
16
Turnover EPA / Game
29
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
16
RZ Efficiency
1
8
Patriots Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Patriots logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
7
7
Yards / Game
15
15
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
3

EPA

EPA / Play
5
4
EPA / Pass
10
4
EPA / Rush
9
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
31
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
17
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
10
4th Down Efficiency
1
8
RZ Efficiency
7
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
4
W
L
O
12/26
40
W
W
U
01/03
17
W
W
O
01/09
8
W
L
O
01/17
10
W
W
U
01/24
5
W
W
O
02/07
22
W
W
U
09/09
2
W
L
O
09/19
23
W
W
O
09/26
-10
L
L
O
NE logo

Patriots

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/22
-7
L
L
U
11/29
3
W
W
U
12/06
45
W
W
U
12/10
-21
L
L
U
12/20
-10
L
L
U
12/28
-29
L
L
P
01/03
14
W
W
O
09/12
-1
L
L
U
09/19
19
W
W
U
09/26
-15
L
L
U