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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ jets week 17, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
11-4
28
TBD
MetLife Stadium
57°F
9 mph
24
NYJJets
4-11
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
57°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
3
7
11
28
Jets
7
10
7
0
24

Spread

NYJ logo
+13

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
469
374
Total Plays
73
60
Yards / Play
6.4
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.23
+0.15
Passing Yards
405
224
Comp/Att
34/50(68%)
19/33(58%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.44
+0.25
Rushing Yards
64
150
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
2.9
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
26
22
Passing 1st downs
21
14
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
60%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
67%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.83
-0.03
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-5
-10
Sack EPA
-1.60
-2.19
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
39
14
Penalty EPA
-6.65
-1.64

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.0
Model
-13.0

Win Probability

Market85.2%
Model85.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-345
Home nfelo
1,325
Away nfelo
1,693
Home Field
+48.8
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-25.4
Home QB Adjustment
-20.8
Away QB Adjustment
+4.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-304.1
Model Spread
+13.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Value
Ptile
10/14
5.6
86
10/24
4.2
80
10/31
5.5
85
11/14
-1.7
41
11/22
2.8
74
11/28
-1.5
42
12/05
8.3
93
12/12
10.1
96
12/19
-8.2
7
12/26
1.9
67
Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-20.8
Value
Ptile
09/19
-11.7
2
09/26
-12.5
1
10/03
-0.3
51
10/10
-8.2
7
10/24
-5.1
19
11/28
-8.1
8
12/05
-1.2
44
12/12
-5.4
17
12/19
-6.2
13
12/26
4.0
80

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Jets Defense
Buccaneers logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
3
32
Passing Yards / Game
9
16
Rushing Yards / Game
26
29

EPA

EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
6
32
EPA / Rush
11
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
9
30
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
26
RZ Efficiency
1
19
Jets Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Jets logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
26
15
Passing Yards / Game
13
31
Rushing Yards / Game
25
3

EPA

EPA / Play
25
4
EPA / Pass
29
4
EPA / Rush
13
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
29
8
Fumbles / Game
7
4
Turnover EPA / Game
9
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
10
4th Down Efficiency
23
8
RZ Efficiency
20
6

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
6
W
L
U
10/24
35
W
W
U
10/31
-9
L
L
O
11/14
-10
L
L
U
11/22
20
W
W
U
11/28
7
W
W
O
12/05
13
W
W
U
12/12
6
W
W
O
12/19
-9
L
L
U
12/26
26
W
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-41
L
L
O
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/04
-15
L
L
O
11/14
-28
L
L
O
11/21
-7
L
L
U
11/28
7
W
W
U
12/05
-15
L
L
O
12/12
-21
L
L
U
12/19
-7
L
W
O
12/26
5
W
W
O