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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ falcons week 15, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
8-5
31
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
27
ATLFalcons
4-9
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
21
10
31
Falcons
7
10
7
3
27

Spread

ATL logo
+6

Total

OVER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
416
369
Total Plays
66
65
Yards / Play
6.3
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.06
Passing Yards
365
332
Comp/Att
31/45(69%)
34/49(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.32
+0.09
Rushing Yards
51
37
Rush Attempts
18
13
Yards / Rush
2.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
19
21
Rushing 1st downs
6
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
40%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-25
-24
Sack EPA
-6.30
-4.09
Penalties
1
2
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model74.2%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers-6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.2%
Cover Probability
58.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-225
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,632
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-37.0
Home QB Adjustment
-22.2
Away QB Adjustment
+14.8
Market Regression
-10.3
Final Difference
-183.5
Model Spread
+7.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
Value
Ptile
10/04
8.9
94
10/08
-0.8
39
10/18
1.6
55
10/25
12.9
98
11/02
2.7
65
11/08
-10.6
2
11/15
8.9
94
11/23
-2.9
24
11/29
3.2
68
12/13
1.6
55
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-22.2
Value
Ptile
10/05
-0.0
46
10/11
-5.9
11
10/18
10.4
96
10/25
3.3
69
10/29
1.0
51
11/08
3.6
71
11/22
-13.9
0
11/29
-3.7
21
12/06
-1.6
32
12/13
-6.5
9

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
9
29
Passing Yards / Game
12
30
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7

EPA

EPA / Play
5
19
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
21
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
11
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
16
4th Down Efficiency
13
7
RZ Efficiency
11
27
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Falcons logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
16
7
Yards / Game
15
8
Passing Yards / Game
1
21
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1

EPA

EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
11
6
EPA / Rush
27
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
30
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
12
10
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
17
4th Down Efficiency
15
13
RZ Efficiency
26
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
7
W
L
O
10/08
-1
L
L
U
10/18
28
W
W
U
10/25
25
W
W
O
11/02
2
W
L
O
11/08
-35
L
L
U
11/15
23
W
W
O
11/23
-3
L
L
O
11/29
-3
L
W
U
12/13
12
W
W
U
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/05
-14
L
L
U
10/11
-7
L
L
U
10/18
17
W
W
O
10/25
-1
L
L
U
10/29
8
W
W
U
11/08
7
W
W
O
11/22
-15
L
L
U
11/29
37
W
W
U
12/06
-5
L
L
U
12/13
-3
L
L
U