nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ falcons week 11, 2005

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

TB logo
TBBuccaneers
6-3
30
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
27
ATLFalcons
6-3
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
4
3
7
10
24
Falcons
0
10
7
10
27

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
258
443
Total Plays
46
77
Yards / Play
5.6
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.05
Passing Yards
--
293
Comp/Att
11/19(58%)
21/38(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.7
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.16
Rushing Yards
140
150
Rush Attempts
27
36
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
15
26
Passing 1st downs
6
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
25%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
2
11
3rd Down Attempts
8
17
Red Zone %
67%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.70
-8.42
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-13
Sack EPA
--
-9.97
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
55
87
Penalty EPA
-5.13
-7.94

Preview data is limited for games before 2009

Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A

Win Probability

MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
22
18
Yards / Game
24
22
Passing Yards / Game
23
17
Rushing Yards / Game
15
26

EPA

EPA / Play
21
17
EPA / Pass
22
7
EPA / Rush
15
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
15
Interceptions / Game
13
14
Fumbles / Game
10
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
1
4th Down Efficiency
17
26
RZ Efficiency
15
20
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Falcons logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
12
7
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
1
5

EPA

EPA / Play
14
3
EPA / Pass
20
5
EPA / Rush
5
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
14
Interceptions / Game
7
13
Fumbles / Game
16
18
Turnover EPA / Game
17
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
7
4th Down Efficiency
25
13
RZ Efficiency
8
13

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-5
L
L
P
09/11
11
W
W
P
09/18
16
W
W
P
09/25
1
W
L
P
10/02
4
W
L
P
10/09
-2
L
L
P
10/16
14
W
W
P
10/30
-5
L
L
P
11/06
-20
L
L
P
11/13
1
W
W
P
ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/23
-17
L
L
P
09/12
4
W
W
P
09/18
-3
L
L
P
09/25
8
W
W
P
10/02
20
W
W
P
10/09
-3
L
L
P
10/16
3
W
L
P
10/24
13
W
W
P
11/06
7
W
W
P
11/13
-8
L
L
P