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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ 49ers week 14, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
6-6
7
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
8 mph
35
SF49ers
8-4
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
54°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
0
7
0
7
49ers
7
21
7
0
35

Spread

SF logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
38

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
322
404
Total Plays
74
59
Yards / Play
4.4
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.28
+0.15
Passing Yards
--
--
Comp/Att
34/55(62%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
--
--
EPA / Pass
-0.17
+0.34
Rushing Yards
69
209
Rush Attempts
19
36
Yards / Rush
3.6
5.8
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
18
24
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
25%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-14.07
-4.11
Sacks
--
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
--
Penalties
8
2
Penalty Yards
62
--
Penalty EPA
-7.77
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SF logo
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model53.7%
Spread Pick
TB logo
Buccaneers+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+13.2%
Cover Probability
59.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-25
Home nfelo
1,604
Away nfelo
1,549
Home Field
+54.7
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.4
Net QB Adjustment
-134.3
Home QB Adjustment
-135.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
25.9
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Value
Ptile
09/25
2.4
72
10/02
9.9
96
10/09
4.3
83
10/16
0.0
53
10/23
1.3
61
10/27
-0.4
50
11/06
3.2
76
11/13
2.8
74
11/27
1.8
67
12/05
3.4
78
B. Purdy headshot

B. Purdy

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
-135.4
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs 49ers Defense
Buccaneers logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
14
2
Passing Yards / Game
11
19
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2

EPA

EPA / Play
23
1
EPA / Pass
11
2
EPA / Rush
32
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
8
2
Fumbles / Game
24
19
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
16
RZ Efficiency
24
20
49ers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
49ers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
15
Yards / Game
6
10
Passing Yards / Game
27
21
Rushing Yards / Game
7
15

EPA

EPA / Play
6
18
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
23
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
32
Interceptions / Game
3
27
Fumbles / Game
26
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
8
4th Down Efficiency
29
25
RZ Efficiency
19
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
1-8-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-2
L
L
U
10/02
-10
L
L
O
10/09
6
W
L
U
10/16
-2
L
L
U
10/23
-18
L
L
U
10/27
-5
L
L
O
11/06
3
W
P
U
11/13
5
W
W
U
11/27
-6
L
L
U
12/05
1
W
L
U
SF logo

49ers

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-1
L
L
U
10/03
15
W
W
U
10/09
22
W
W
O
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/23
-21
L
L
O
10/30
17
W
W
O
11/13
6
W
L
U
11/21
28
W
W
O
11/27
13
W
W
U
12/04
16
W
W
O