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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ patriots week 14, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
4-8
26
TBD
Gillette Stadium
30°F
5 mph
27
NEPatriots
9-3
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
30°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
3
3
13
7
26
Patriots
0
0
11
16
27

Spread

CLE logo
+10

Total

OVER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
494
486
Total Plays
71
79
Yards / Play
7.0
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.22
+0.16
Passing Yards
386
399
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
32/53(60%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.47
+0.08
Rushing Yards
108
87
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.11
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
24
30
Passing 1st downs
17
21
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
47%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.88
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-5
-21
Sack EPA
-1.66
-9.78
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
75
41
Penalty EPA
-9.96
-3.72

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.7%
Cover Probability
53.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+308
Home nfelo
1,631
Away nfelo
1,386
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-20.9
Home QB Adjustment
-3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+17.2
Market Regression
+0.4
Final Difference
270.3
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

J. Campbell headshot

J. Campbell

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+17.2
Value
Ptile
09/18
8.4
95
09/25
0.4
55
10/02
3.6
75
10/09
-5.1
18
10/16
-2.4
34
11/19
-9.2
3
10/27
6.2
87
11/03
6.1
87
11/17
-9.6
4
11/24
-4.2
24
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Value
Ptile
09/22
-0.9
45
09/29
4.7
82
10/06
-8.3
7
10/13
-3.6
27
10/20
-8.1
7
10/27
-6.4
13
11/03
10.4
96
11/18
3.2
72
11/24
6.7
89
12/01
6.7
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Patriots Defense
Browns logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
27
10
Yards / Game
18
28
Passing Yards / Game
8
22
Rushing Yards / Game
28
28

EPA

EPA / Play
25
15
EPA / Pass
25
14
EPA / Rush
14
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
21
Interceptions / Game
24
10
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
14
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
27
4th Down Efficiency
17
2
RZ Efficiency
22
11
Patriots Offense vs Browns Defense
Patriots logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
6
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
8
18

EPA

EPA / Play
3
17
EPA / Pass
8
12
EPA / Rush
13
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
3
Interceptions / Game
5
19
Fumbles / Game
16
24
Turnover EPA / Game
24
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
31
4th Down Efficiency
18
16
RZ Efficiency
8
31

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
4
W
W
O
09/29
11
W
W
U
10/03
13
W
W
O
10/13
-14
L
L
O
10/20
-18
L
L
U
10/27
-6
L
W
O
11/03
6
W
W
O
11/17
-21
L
L
O
11/24
-16
L
L
U
12/01
-4
L
L
O
NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/22
20
W
W
U
09/29
7
W
W
O
10/06
-7
L
L
U
10/13
3
W
W
O
10/20
-3
L
L
O
10/27
10
W
W
U
11/03
24
W
W
O
11/18
-4
L
L
U
11/24
3
W
W
O
12/01
3
W
L
O