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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ patriots week 8, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
2-4
13
TBD
Gillette Stadium
49°F
11 mph
27
NEPatriots
7-0
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
49°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
7
3
3
13
Patriots
11
0
7
3
21

Spread

NE logo
-10

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
310
318
Total Plays
58
66
Yards / Play
5.3
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.32
-0.08
Passing Yards
151
239
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
20/36(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.30
+0.14
Rushing Yards
159
79
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
7.2
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.96
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-43
-20
Sack EPA
-7.65
-5.38
Penalties
13
4
Penalty Yards
85
32
Penalty EPA
-10.25
-1.15

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model80.3%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-10.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.8%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+278
Home nfelo
1,732
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+11.7
Base HFA
+52.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-40.9
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+24.8
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
-19.7
Market Regression
-3.2
Final Difference
244.2
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-19.7
Value
Ptile
12/09
1.4
57
12/15
-2.5
31
12/23
8.0
92
12/30
2.6
67
09/08
-7.2
11
09/16
-3.4
29
09/22
-6.3
14
09/29
1.9
66
10/07
-14.4
1
10/13
-0.3
50
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Value
Ptile
01/13
8.3
92
01/20
1.6
58
02/03
-2.7
29
09/08
7.2
91
09/15
3.5
75
09/22
3.7
77
09/29
-6.4
14
10/06
5.7
85
10/10
3.6
75
10/21
0.6
56

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Patriots Defense
Browns logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
22
1
Yards / Game
22
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
4
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8

EPA

EPA / Play
22
1
EPA / Pass
21
1
EPA / Rush
12
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
29
Interceptions / Game
30
1
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
7
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
1
4th Down Efficiency
23
6
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Patriots Offense vs Browns Defense
Patriots logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
7
20
Yards / Game
14
21
Passing Yards / Game
20
10
Rushing Yards / Game
18
30

EPA

EPA / Play
16
20
EPA / Pass
18
15
EPA / Rush
15
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
17
Interceptions / Game
10
10
Fumbles / Game
15
25
Turnover EPA / Game
28
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
12
4th Down Efficiency
26
4
RZ Efficiency
26
25

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
6
W
W
U
12/15
1
W
W
U
12/23
8
W
L
P
12/30
-2
L
W
O
09/08
-30
L
L
O
09/16
20
W
W
U
09/22
-7
L
L
U
09/29
15
W
W
O
10/07
-28
L
L
U
10/13
-4
L
L
O
NE logo

Patriots

10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/13
13
W
W
O
01/20
6
W
W
O
02/03
10
W
W
U
09/08
30
W
W
U
09/15
43
W
W
U
09/22
16
W
L
O
09/29
6
W
L
U
10/06
26
W
W
U
10/10
21
W
W
O
10/21
33
W
W
U