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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ lions week 10, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-8
24
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
38
DETLions
4-4
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
10
0
14
0
24
Lions
3
8
7
14
32

Spread

DET logo
-10

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
413
345
Total Plays
77
49
Yards / Play
5.4
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.12
+0.07
Passing Yards
212
241
Comp/Att
22/40(55%)
17/26(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
9.3
EPA / Pass
-0.41
+0.09
Rushing Yards
201
104
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
6.1
5.5
EPA / Rush
+0.27
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
14
7
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
33%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-13.81
-4.90
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-25
-8
Sack EPA
-6.55
-4.99
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
60
81
Penalty EPA
-7.53
-7.67

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,491
Away nfelo
1,298
Home Field
+32.5
Base HFA
+56.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.2
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.1
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-11.8
Market Regression
-52.1
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

D. Kizer headshot

D. Kizer

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-11.8
Value
Ptile
09/10
-4.2
23
09/17
-8.8
5
09/24
-2.0
39
10/01
-7.6
10
10/08
-6.4
14
10/22
-7.4
11
10/29
-2.1
38
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Value
Ptile
01/01
2.3
67
01/07
-3.1
26
09/10
7.6
92
09/18
-0.3
50
09/24
0.1
53
10/01
-7.5
10
10/08
-2.5
35
10/15
-7.9
8
10/29
5.1
84
11/06
7.5
92

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Lions Defense
Browns logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
32
21
Yards / Game
24
27
Passing Yards / Game
15
16
Rushing Yards / Game
18
19

EPA

EPA / Play
31
4
EPA / Pass
32
11
EPA / Rush
4
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
7
Interceptions / Game
32
3
Fumbles / Game
25
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
12
21
RZ Efficiency
24
28
Lions Offense vs Browns Defense
Lions logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
8
31
Yards / Game
13
13
Passing Yards / Game
4
31
Rushing Yards / Game
32
7

EPA

EPA / Play
20
27
EPA / Pass
12
27
EPA / Rush
32
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
6
Interceptions / Game
10
31
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
23
4th Down Efficiency
31
18
RZ Efficiency
14
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
3
W
W
U
01/01
-3
L
W
O
09/10
-3
L
W
U
09/17
-14
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
L
O
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
-3
L
L
U
10/15
-16
L
L
O
10/22
-3
L
W
U
10/29
-17
L
L
O
DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-7
L
L
O
01/07
-20
L
L
U
09/10
12
W
W
O
09/18
14
W
W
U
09/24
-4
L
L
O
10/01
7
W
W
U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
10/15
-14
L
L
O
10/29
-5
L
L
U
11/06
13
W
W
O