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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ colts week 7, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
3-2
39
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0
38
INDColts
3-3
IND logo
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
7
14
3
9
33
Colts
14
7
7
10
38

Spread

IND logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Colts logo
Total Yards
316
456
Total Plays
73
67
Yards / Play
4.3
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.15
Passing Yards
166
288
Comp/Att
16/37(43%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
12.5
EPA / Pass
-0.25
+0.03
Rushing Yards
150
168
Rush Attempts
34
40
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.10
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Colts logo
1st Downs
18
20
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
25%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
15
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Colts logo
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-3.51
-19.40
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-17
-17
Sack EPA
-3.58
-15.28
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
20
67
Penalty EPA
-2.09
-0.76

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CLE logo
CLEBrownsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-116
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,557
Home Field
+58.2
Base HFA
+43.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
+8.4
Away QB Adjustment
+24.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.6
Value
Ptile
01/03
2.4
63
12/04
-5.3
15
12/11
1.4
62
12/17
-2.2
35
12/24
-4.1
22
01/01
-2.4
33
01/08
-3.9
23
09/10
-1.2
41
09/18
-6.4
12
09/24
5.1
82
G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+8.4
Value
Ptile
10/11
0.5
49
10/18
-0.8
40
10/25
-5.3
14
12/20
-0.3
44
12/05
1.6
65
01/08
-2.7
33
12/24
6.0
89
01/01
-5.5
14
09/24
-3.5
26
10/15
-5.5
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Colts Defense
Browns logo
Colts logo

Total

Points / Game
12
28
Yards / Game
16
24
Passing Yards / Game
5
25
Rushing Yards / Game
13
24

EPA

EPA / Play
28
19
EPA / Pass
28
15
EPA / Rush
23
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
18
Interceptions / Game
32
14
Fumbles / Game
26
8
Turnover EPA / Game
1
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
30
RZ Efficiency
15
16
Colts Offense vs Browns Defense
Colts logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
11
21
Yards / Game
14
1
Passing Yards / Game
14
2
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10

EPA

EPA / Play
17
1
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
21
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
6
5
Fumbles / Game
16
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
1
4th Down Efficiency
16
1
RZ Efficiency
23
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-13
L
L
U
12/17
10
W
W
U
12/24
-7
L
L
U
01/01
14
W
W
U
01/08
-14
L
L
O
09/10
21
W
W
U
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/24
24
W
W
U
10/01
-25
L
L
U
10/15
2
W
W
P
IND logo

Colts

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/17
-3
L
W
O
12/26
-17
L
L
U
01/01
-28
L
L
O
01/08
-1
L
L
O
09/10
-10
L
L
O
09/17
11
W
W
O
09/24
3
W
W
U
10/01
-6
L
L
O
10/08
7
W
W
U
10/15
-17
L
L
O