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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ chiefs week 15, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
2-11
41
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
39°F
15 mph
34
KCChiefs
3-10
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
39°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
10
10
7
14
41
Chiefs
3
15
0
10
28

Spread

CLE logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
39

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
417
491
Total Plays
67
71
Yards / Play
6.2
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.15
Passing Yards
--
323
Comp/Att
10/18(56%)
22/40(55%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.1
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.14
Rushing Yards
351
168
Rush Attempts
49
30
Yards / Rush
7.2
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.26
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
5
14
Rushing 1st downs
15
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
38%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-11.75
-5.30
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
--
-1.07
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
20
34
Penalty EPA
-1.25
-3.55

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model51.3%
Spread Pick
CLE logo
Browns+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,275
Away nfelo
1,317
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-29.8
Home QB Adjustment
-10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+19.6
Market Regression
+1.3
Final Difference
9.1
Model Spread
-0.5

Quarterbacks

B. Quinn headshot

B. Quinn

Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
+19.6
Value
Ptile
11/17
-4.1
21
11/23
-8.5
5
09/13
-3.0
31
09/20
-7.1
11
09/27
-5.2
19
11/16
-13.0
1
11/22
7.1
90
11/29
-2.9
31
12/06
4.4
79
12/10
-5.5
17
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-10.2
Value
Ptile
10/04
-3.5
27
10/11
1.6
60
10/18
-5.6
16
10/25
-13.5
1
11/08
0.4
53
11/15
-4.2
23
11/22
-1.1
43
11/29
-0.1
48
12/06
-10.8
2
12/13
-9.0
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Browns logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
29
29
Yards / Game
32
30
Passing Yards / Game
30
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
30

EPA

EPA / Play
27
25
EPA / Pass
32
18
EPA / Rush
15
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
5
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
25
7
Turnover EPA / Game
6
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
14
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
28
22
Chiefs Offense vs Browns Defense
Chiefs logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
23
21
Yards / Game
25
31
Passing Yards / Game
20
28
Rushing Yards / Game
12
28

EPA

EPA / Play
26
24
EPA / Pass
26
29
EPA / Rush
26
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
23
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
18
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
17
4th Down Efficiency
17
15
RZ Efficiency
23
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

2-8
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-3
L
W
O
10/11
3
W
W
U
10/18
-13
L
W
O
10/25
-28
L
L
U
11/01
-24
L
L
U
11/16
-16
L
L
U
11/22
-1
L
W
O
11/29
-9
L
W
U
12/06
-7
L
W
O
12/10
7
W
W
U
KC logo

Chiefs

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-11
L
L
P
10/11
-6
L
W
O
10/18
8
W
W
U
10/25
-30
L
L
P
11/08
-3
L
W
O
11/15
6
W
W
U
11/22
3
W
W
O
11/29
-29
L
L
O
12/06
-31
L
L
O
12/13
-6
L
L
U