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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. browns @ chargers week 13, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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CLE logo
CLEBrowns
0-11
10
TBD
StubHub Center
68°F
7 mph
19
LACChargers
5-6
LAC logo
TBD
StubHub Center
68°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Browns
0
7
0
3
10
Chargers
0
9
10
0
19

Spread

CLE logo
+13.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Browns logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
291
429
Total Plays
57
69
Yards / Play
5.1
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.11
Passing Yards
202
335
Comp/Att
15/32(47%)
31/43(72%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
-0.11
+0.35
Rushing Yards
89
94
Rush Attempts
22
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Browns logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
7
19
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
45%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
0%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Browns logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.39
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-13
-9
Sack EPA
-6.25
-0.69
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
24
62
Penalty EPA
-3.02
-7.78

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-14.0

Win Probability

Market86.2%
Model87.6%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers-13.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+373
Home nfelo
1,570
Away nfelo
1,285
Home Field
+66.5
Base HFA
+56.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.1
Net QB Adjustment
+20.8
Home QB Adjustment
+21.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
+4.4
Final Difference
339.1
Model Spread
-14.0

Quarterbacks

D. Kizer headshot

D. Kizer

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Value
Ptile
09/10
-4.2
23
09/17
-8.8
5
09/24
-2.0
39
10/01
-7.6
10
10/08
-6.4
14
10/22
-7.4
11
10/29
-2.1
38
11/12
3.3
76
11/19
-7.4
10
11/26
2.1
68
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+21.6
Value
Ptile
09/17
6.3
88
09/24
-8.9
5
10/01
3.3
76
10/08
0.5
55
10/15
2.1
67
10/22
-0.8
46
10/29
-3.5
28
11/12
2.5
70
11/19
2.8
72
11/23
11.8
99

Team Matchup Ranks

Browns Offense vs Chargers Defense
Browns logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
15
18
Rushing Yards / Game
18
31

EPA

EPA / Play
31
10
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
4
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
32
Interceptions / Game
32
5
Fumbles / Game
25
14
Turnover EPA / Game
1
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
5
RZ Efficiency
24
1
Chargers Offense vs Browns Defense
Chargers logo
Browns logo

Total

Points / Game
13
31
Yards / Game
5
13
Passing Yards / Game
16
31
Rushing Yards / Game
24
7

EPA

EPA / Play
8
27
EPA / Pass
4
27
EPA / Rush
21
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
6
Interceptions / Game
10
31
Fumbles / Game
1
18
Turnover EPA / Game
30
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
23
4th Down Efficiency
18
18
RZ Efficiency
27
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

CLE logo

Browns

0-10
SU
1-9
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
-14
L
L
U
09/24
-3
L
L
O
10/01
-24
L
L
U
10/08
-3
L
L
U
10/15
-16
L
L
O
10/22
-3
L
W
U
10/29
-17
L
L
O
11/12
-14
L
L
O
11/19
-12
L
L
U
11/26
-14
L
L
O
LAC logo

Chargers

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
-2
L
L
U
09/24
-14
L
L
U
10/01
-2
L
L
O
10/08
5
W
W
O
10/15
1
W
W
U
10/22
21
W
W
U
10/29
-8
L
L
U
11/12
-3
L
W
U
11/19
30
W
W
O
11/23
22
W
W
U