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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ titans week 10, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-5
10
TBD
Nissan Stadium
36°F
9 mph
17
TENTitans
5-3
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
36°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
10
0
0
10
Titans
0
7
7
3
17

Spread

TEN logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
313
307
Total Plays
73
60
Yards / Play
4.3
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.14
-0.06
Passing Yards
248
244
Comp/Att
21/42(50%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
6.8
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.13
Rushing Yards
65
63
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.7
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.43
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
24%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
16
Red Zone %
NaN%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-1.92
-4.88
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-38
-11
Sack EPA
-8.96
-2.02
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
50
60
Penalty EPA
-7.29
-8.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+78
Home nfelo
1,518
Away nfelo
1,468
Home Field
+15.8
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-30.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+12.3
Home QB Adjustment
+2.4
Away QB Adjustment
-9.9
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.9
Value
Ptile
12/26
-0.9
46
01/02
5.4
85
01/09
2.7
73
09/12
3.6
79
09/18
-7.1
8
09/25
-4.7
19
10/02
3.2
77
10/06
-7.5
8
10/17
-4.1
23
10/30
-3.5
25
R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.4
Value
Ptile
12/23
-0.8
46
01/02
0.7
58
01/09
6.6
90
01/22
-6.0
15
09/11
3.0
76
09/19
-8.0
6
09/25
1.0
59
10/02
-1.3
44
10/09
-6.5
11
10/23
-4.8
19

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Titans Defense
Broncos logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
32
12
Yards / Game
21
23
Passing Yards / Game
9
32
Rushing Yards / Game
21
1

EPA

EPA / Play
28
16
EPA / Pass
29
28
EPA / Rush
27
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
6
Interceptions / Game
22
13
Fumbles / Game
11
14
Turnover EPA / Game
12
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
3
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
14
14
Titans Offense vs Broncos Defense
Titans logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
28
12
Yards / Game
30
8
Passing Yards / Game
24
9
Rushing Yards / Game
13
10

EPA

EPA / Play
25
13
EPA / Pass
23
7
EPA / Rush
26
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
1
Interceptions / Game
9
11
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
13
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
2
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
6
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
-21
L
L
O
01/08
-4
L
W
O
09/12
-1
L
L
U
09/18
7
W
L
U
09/25
1
W
W
U
10/02
-9
L
L
O
10/06
-3
L
L
U
10/17
-3
L
W
U
10/23
-7
L
L
U
10/30
4
W
W
U
TEN logo

Titans

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
3
W
L
O
01/22
-3
L
L
U
09/11
-1
L
L
U
09/19
-34
L
L
O
09/25
2
W
W
O
10/02
7
W
W
U
10/09
4
W
W
U
10/23
9
W
W
U
10/30
7
W
W
U
11/06
-3
L
W
U