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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ seahawks week 1, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
-
20
TBD
Lumen Field
65°F
7 mph
26
SEASeahawks
-
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
65°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
6
0
7
16
Seahawks
3
6
10
7
26

Spread

DEN logo
+6.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
231
304
Total Plays
69
61
Yards / Play
3.3
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.07
Passing Yards
132
158
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
18/26(69%)
Yards / Pass
3.1
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.50
-0.22
Rushing Yards
99
146
Rush Attempts
25
33
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
13
19
Passing 1st downs
6
11
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
28%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
25%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-4.95
-4.80
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-6
-13
Sack EPA
-1.16
-2.37
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
60
--
Penalty EPA
-4.73
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
SEA logo
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-6.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+144
Home nfelo
1,527
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+54.1
Base HFA
+46.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.1
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+17.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-15.1
Market Regression
+14.1
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5

Quarterbacks

B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-15.1
No recent game data available
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+1.9
Value
Ptile
10/22
-0.9
44
10/29
-0.2
48
11/05
-9.0
5
11/12
7.2
91
11/19
0.0
49
11/23
-7.0
11
11/30
8.1
94
12/24
1.1
56
12/31
6.3
88
01/07
2.0
64

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Broncos logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
10
13
Yards / Game
22
13
Passing Yards / Game
27
9
Rushing Yards / Game
17
16

EPA

EPA / Play
12
10
EPA / Pass
16
8
EPA / Rush
15
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
5
Interceptions / Game
15
13
Fumbles / Game
12
19
Turnover EPA / Game
25
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
10
4th Down Efficiency
9
6
RZ Efficiency
8
8
Seahawks Offense vs Broncos Defense
Seahawks logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
17
3
Yards / Game
15
10
Passing Yards / Game
4
30
Rushing Yards / Game
28
5

EPA

EPA / Play
20
3
EPA / Pass
21
2
EPA / Rush
18
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
29
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
6
13
Turnover EPA / Game
10
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
15
RZ Efficiency
14
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/29
15
W
W
U
11/13
2
W
W
U
11/19
1
W
L
U
11/26
17
W
W
O
12/03
-5
L
L
U
12/10
17
W
W
U
12/16
-25
L
L
O
12/24
-3
L
L
O
12/31
7
W
W
U
01/07
-13
L
L
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/05
-34
L
L
U
11/12
3
W
L
O
11/19
-1
L
W
U
11/23
-18
L
L
O
11/30
-6
L
W
O
12/10
-12
L
W
U
12/18
3
W
W
U
12/24
3
W
P
U
12/31
-7
L
L
O
01/07
1
W
L
U