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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ seahawks week 1, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
-
16
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
0
17
SEASeahawks
-
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
10
0
3
16
Seahawks
7
10
0
0
17

Spread

SEA logo
+6.5

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
433
253
Total Plays
64
49
Yards / Play
6.8
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.10
Passing Yards
330
177
Comp/Att
29/42(69%)
23/28(82%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.36
+0.08
Rushing Yards
103
76
Rush Attempts
20
19
Yards / Rush
5.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.49
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
20
19
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
7
3rd Down %
53%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-11.39
-6.57
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-18
Sack EPA
-1.76
-3.55
Penalties
12
5
Penalty Yards
106
77
Penalty EPA
-12.28
-8.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market71.4%
Model61.3%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks+6.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+20.4%
Cover Probability
63.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+23
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.8
Time Adj
+6.6
Net QB Adjustment
-17.6
Home QB Adjustment
-10.4
Away QB Adjustment
+7.2
Market Regression
+14.0
Final Difference
-79.9
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
Value
Ptile
10/07
-2.6
34
11/14
-9.0
6
11/21
-6.3
13
11/29
0.8
59
12/05
0.4
56
12/12
3.1
76
12/21
-7.6
9
12/26
-0.9
46
01/02
5.4
85
01/09
2.7
73
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-10.4
Value
Ptile
12/01
-7.2
10
12/07
-0.9
43
12/14
-2.9
30
12/21
-2.1
35
12/28
10.2
96
10/23
-4.5
17
12/03
-2.3
36
10/17
-2.7
33
10/25
-5.2
18
10/31
1.2
61

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Broncos logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
32
25
Yards / Game
21
28
Passing Yards / Game
9
23
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30

EPA

EPA / Play
28
29
EPA / Pass
29
25
EPA / Rush
27
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
9
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
11
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
3
RZ Efficiency
14
23
Seahawks Offense vs Broncos Defense
Seahawks logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
10
12
Yards / Game
13
8
Passing Yards / Game
8
9
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10

EPA

EPA / Play
10
13
EPA / Pass
15
7
EPA / Rush
16
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
1
Interceptions / Game
12
11
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
6
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
2
4th Down Efficiency
6
30
RZ Efficiency
27
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
7
W
W
U
11/07
14
W
W
U
11/14
-17
L
L
U
11/28
15
W
W
U
12/05
-13
L
L
U
12/12
28
W
W
O
12/19
-5
L
L
U
12/26
-4
L
L
U
01/02
-21
L
L
O
01/08
-4
L
W
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
24
W
W
U
11/14
-17
L
L
U
11/21
-10
L
L
U
11/29
-2
L
L
U
12/05
7
W
W
O
12/12
20
W
W
O
12/21
-10
L
L
U
12/26
-1
L
L
O
01/02
22
W
W
O
01/09
8
W
W
O