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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chiefs week 10, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
5-4
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
57°F
12 mph
16
KCChiefs
8-0
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
57°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
0
14
0
0
14
Chiefs
0
10
3
3
16

Spread

DEN logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
260
300
Total Plays
55
65
Yards / Play
4.7
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.02
+0.02
Passing Yards
182
243
Comp/Att
22/30(73%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.09
Rushing Yards
78
57
Rush Attempts
23
19
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
16
19
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
54%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-33
-23
Sack EPA
-4.09
-6.68
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
35
10
Penalty EPA
-5.03
-2.23

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
KC logo
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+203
Home nfelo
1,674
Away nfelo
1,485
Home Field
+30.6
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-16.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.5
Away QB Adjustment
+7.1
Market Regression
-31.5
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

B. Nix headshot

B. Nix

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Value
Ptile
09/08
-4.2
22
09/15
-4.4
20
09/22
4.8
79
09/29
-3.7
23
10/06
1.5
59
10/13
1.8
62
10/17
3.0
69
10/27
7.7
92
11/03
-4.7
18
P. Mahomes headshot

P. Mahomes

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Value
Ptile
01/28
4.8
80
02/11
8.5
95
09/05
1.4
58
09/15
-2.1
34
09/22
1.4
58
09/29
-2.8
29
10/07
2.1
64
10/20
-3.1
27
10/27
2.8
68
11/04
4.3
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Broncos logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
10
6
Yards / Game
22
9
Passing Yards / Game
27
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
10

EPA

EPA / Play
12
16
EPA / Pass
16
25
EPA / Rush
15
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
15
Interceptions / Game
15
17
Fumbles / Game
12
26
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
9
9
RZ Efficiency
8
11
Chiefs Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chiefs logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
12
3
Yards / Game
19
10
Passing Yards / Game
19
30
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5

EPA

EPA / Play
10
3
EPA / Pass
10
2
EPA / Rush
12
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
29
Interceptions / Game
14
11
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
22
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
13
4th Down Efficiency
6
15
RZ Efficiency
21
1

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/07
-13
L
L
O
09/08
-6
L
W
O
09/15
-7
L
L
U
09/22
19
W
W
U
09/29
1
W
W
U
10/06
16
W
W
O
10/13
-7
L
L
O
10/17
23
W
W
O
10/27
14
W
W
O
11/03
-31
L
L
O
KC logo

Chiefs

10-0
SU
6-4
ATS
3-5-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/28
7
W
W
U
02/11
3
W
W
P
09/05
7
W
W
P
09/15
1
W
L
O
09/22
5
W
W
U
09/29
7
W
L
U
10/07
13
W
W
U
10/20
10
W
W
U
10/27
7
W
L
O
11/04
6
W
L
O