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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ chargers week 13, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
9-2
17
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
78°F
4 mph
3
LACChargers
3-8
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
78°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
8
3
0
0
11
Chargers
0
3
0
0
3

Spread

DEN logo
-6

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
293
272
Total Plays
66
62
Yards / Play
4.4
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.16
-0.44
Passing Yards
159
179
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
18/35(51%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.1
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.48
Rushing Yards
134
93
Rush Attempts
39
23
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
19
15
Passing 1st downs
8
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
46%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
--
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.55
-15.91
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-23
Sack EPA
-1.73
-6.53
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
18
72
Penalty EPA
-3.19
-8.86

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model67.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-94
Home nfelo
1,434
Away nfelo
1,628
Home Field
+22.7
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
-27.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.0
Net QB Adjustment
+77.5
Home QB Adjustment
+20.9
Away QB Adjustment
-56.6
Market Regression
-16.7
Final Difference
-125.7
Model Spread
+5.0

Quarterbacks

B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-56.6
Value
Ptile
11/22
-0.4
49
11/29
-3.3
27
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.9
Value
Ptile
09/20
-0.1
50
09/27
-4.3
19
10/04
5.8
86
10/12
5.2
83
10/18
10.6
97
10/25
3.6
76
11/01
7.1
91
11/09
0.3
52
11/22
-4.4
18
11/29
6.3
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
21
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
21
17
Rushing Yards / Game
17
27

EPA

EPA / Play
26
30
EPA / Pass
27
19
EPA / Rush
27
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
30
20
Fumbles / Game
19
15
Turnover EPA / Game
10
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
13
4th Down Efficiency
22
32
RZ Efficiency
28
7
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
25
4
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1

EPA

EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
31
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
16
13
Fumbles / Game
21
7
Turnover EPA / Game
15
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
29
8
RZ Efficiency
7
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
7
W
W
O
09/27
12
W
W
U
10/04
3
W
L
U
10/11
6
W
W
U
10/18
3
W
L
O
11/01
19
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
L
O
11/15
-16
L
L
P
11/22
2
W
L
U
11/29
6
W
W
O
LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-5
L
L
U
09/27
-17
L
L
U
10/04
3
W
L
O
10/12
-4
L
L
U
10/18
-7
L
W
U
10/25
-8
L
L
O
11/01
-3
L
W
O
11/09
-3
L
L
U
11/22
-30
L
L
U
11/29
6
W
W
O