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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ bills week 10, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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DEN logo
DENBroncos
3-5
24
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
10 mph
22
BUFBills
5-4
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
49°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
3
12
0
9
24
Bills
0
8
7
7
22

Spread

DEN logo
+7.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
300
371
Total Plays
72
53
Yards / Play
4.2
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.15
Passing Yards
178
--
Comp/Att
24/29(83%)
15/27(56%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.34
Rushing Yards
122
192
Rush Attempts
39
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
7.4
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
12
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
8
3
3rd Down Attempts
19
8
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-4.37
-17.08
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-5.19
--
Penalties
10
5
Penalty Yards
61
63
Penalty EPA
-5.89
-6.30

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+179
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+9.3
Base HFA
+43.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-34.0
Surface Adj
+15.3
Time Adj
-15.7
Net QB Adjustment
+18.3
Home QB Adjustment
+20.4
Away QB Adjustment
+2.1
Market Regression
-31.5
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
01/01
1.1
60
01/08
2.3
71
09/10
1.5
59
09/17
0.2
51
09/24
0.2
51
10/01
4.4
78
10/08
1.7
61
10/12
-8.8
6
10/22
2.7
68
10/29
-2.8
30
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+20.4
Value
Ptile
01/22
1.5
64
09/11
-5.1
19
09/17
6.8
90
09/24
5.0
81
10/01
11.5
98
10/08
7.8
93
10/15
0.1
49
10/22
5.8
85
10/26
8.8
96
11/05
5.7
85

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Bills Defense
Broncos logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
20
3
Yards / Game
26
8
Passing Yards / Game
13
13
Rushing Yards / Game
19
15

EPA

EPA / Play
20
11
EPA / Pass
20
6
EPA / Rush
19
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
32
Interceptions / Game
4
5
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
18
4th Down Efficiency
4
15
RZ Efficiency
19
18
Bills Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bills logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
6
27
Yards / Game
5
29
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
5
30

EPA

EPA / Play
3
24
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
1
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
15
1
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
2
4th Down Efficiency
7
10
RZ Efficiency
4
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-3
L
W
O
01/08
3
W
L
O
09/10
-1
L
L
U
09/17
-2
L
L
O
09/24
-50
L
L
O
10/01
3
W
P
O
10/08
-10
L
L
O
10/12
-11
L
L
U
10/22
2
W
W
U
10/29
15
W
W
U
BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/22
-17
L
L
U
09/11
-6
L
L
U
09/17
28
W
W
O
09/24
34
W
W
U
10/01
28
W
W
O
10/08
-5
L
L
U
10/15
5
W
L
U
10/22
-4
L
L
O
10/26
6
W
L
U
11/05
-6
L
L
U