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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. broncos @ bears week 11, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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DEN logo
DENBroncos
7-2
17
TBD
Soldier Field
29°F
9 mph
15
CHIBears
4-5
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
29°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Broncos
7
3
0
7
17
Bears
0
6
3
6
15

Spread

DEN logo
CHI logo
2
P

Total

UNDER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Broncos logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
389
347
Total Plays
68
60
Yards / Play
5.7
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.00
-0.06
Passing Yards
219
261
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.27
-0.23
Rushing Yards
170
86
Rush Attempts
36
26
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Broncos logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
14
9
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
43%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
33%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Broncos logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.90
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-31
-4
Sack EPA
-7.95
-6.69
Penalties
8
--
Penalty Yards
118
--
Penalty EPA
-12.09
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-2.0
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model53.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+1
Home nfelo
1,449
Away nfelo
1,612
Home Field
+73.5
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+90.1
Home QB Adjustment
+25.6
Away QB Adjustment
-64.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-25.9
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-64.6
No recent game data available
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Value
Ptile
12/15
-11.2
2
12/28
-0.8
45
09/13
-1.9
36
09/20
-0.9
45
10/04
-0.6
47
10/11
1.4
61
10/18
2.6
69
11/01
3.7
77
11/09
3.1
74
11/15
7.1
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Broncos Offense vs Bears Defense
Broncos logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
18
20
Yards / Game
21
14
Passing Yards / Game
21
10
Rushing Yards / Game
17
22

EPA

EPA / Play
26
28
EPA / Pass
27
22
EPA / Rush
27
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
20
Interceptions / Game
30
30
Fumbles / Game
19
26
Turnover EPA / Game
10
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
29
4th Down Efficiency
22
9
RZ Efficiency
28
22
Bears Offense vs Broncos Defense
Bears logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
19
2
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
11
1

EPA

EPA / Play
14
1
EPA / Pass
17
1
EPA / Rush
10
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
12
Interceptions / Game
11
13
Fumbles / Game
21
7
Turnover EPA / Game
18
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
2
4th Down Efficiency
5
8
RZ Efficiency
27
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

DEN logo

Broncos

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/11
-11
L
L
U
09/13
6
W
W
U
09/17
7
W
W
O
09/27
12
W
W
U
10/04
3
W
L
U
10/11
6
W
W
U
10/18
3
W
L
O
11/01
19
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
L
O
11/15
-16
L
L
P
CHI logo

Bears

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-4
L
W
U
09/13
-8
L
L
O
09/20
-25
L
L
O
09/27
-26
L
L
U
10/04
2
W
W
U
10/11
1
W
W
U
10/18
-3
L
W
O
11/01
-3
L
L
U
11/09
3
W
W
U
11/15
24
W
W
O