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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ rams week 1, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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BUF logo
BUFBills
-
31
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
10
LARRams
-
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
7
3
7
14
31
Rams
0
10
0
0
10

Spread

BUF logo
-2

Total

UNDER
51.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
413
243
Total Plays
58
66
Yards / Play
7.1
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.29
Passing Yards
292
191
Comp/Att
26/31(84%)
29/41(71%)
Yards / Pass
9.4
4.7
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.41
Rushing Yards
121
52
Rush Attempts
25
18
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
15
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
90%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
9
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
4
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-19.16
-15.62
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-5
-49
Sack EPA
-1.88
-11.33
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
35
30
Penalty EPA
+2.37
-2.89

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model50.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+21
Home nfelo
1,594
Away nfelo
1,626
Home Field
+56.5
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+19.7
Net QB Adjustment
-3.2
Home QB Adjustment
+5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+9.1
Market Regression
+4.8
Final Difference
-4.3
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.1
Value
Ptile
11/21
-2.4
35
11/25
5.8
87
12/06
-0.5
49
12/12
10.2
97
12/19
-1.8
40
12/26
12.9
98
01/02
-6.5
12
01/09
3.4
77
01/15
18.2
100
01/23
10.9
97
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.9
Value
Ptile
12/05
4.6
82
12/13
5.3
85
12/21
-3.1
31
12/26
-6.1
14
01/02
1.2
61
01/09
-4.2
23
01/17
4.6
82
01/23
8.7
94
01/30
3.5
78
02/13
0.0
53

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Rams Defense
Bills logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
3
20
Yards / Game
2
18
Passing Yards / Game
2
11
Rushing Yards / Game
8
13

EPA

EPA / Play
3
19
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
7
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
3
Interceptions / Game
26
7
Fumbles / Game
31
30
Turnover EPA / Game
2
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
16
31
RZ Efficiency
9
1
Rams Offense vs Bills Defense
Rams logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
27
4
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
26
25
Rushing Yards / Game
26
6

EPA

EPA / Play
27
6
EPA / Pass
27
12
EPA / Rush
19
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
17
Interceptions / Game
22
4
Fumbles / Game
11
13
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
22
RZ Efficiency
14
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-26
L
L
O
11/25
25
W
W
U
12/06
-4
L
L
U
12/12
-6
L
L
O
12/19
17
W
W
O
12/26
12
W
W
O
01/02
14
W
P
U
01/09
17
W
W
U
01/15
30
W
W
O
01/23
-6
L
L
O
LAR logo

Rams

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
30
W
W
U
12/13
7
W
W
O
12/21
10
W
W
U
12/26
7
W
W
O
01/02
1
W
L
U
01/09
-3
L
L
O
01/17
23
W
W
U
01/23
3
W
W
O
01/30
3
W
L
U
02/13
3
W
L
U