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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ raiders week 13, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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BUF logo
BUFBills
6-5
24
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
59°F
4 mph
38
OAKRaiders
9-2
OAK logo
TBD
Ring Central Coliseum
59°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
3
7
14
0
24
Raiders
3
6
14
15
38

Spread

OAK logo
-3

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Raiders logo
Total Yards
382
401
Total Plays
69
68
Yards / Play
5.5
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.21
Passing Yards
170
--
Comp/Att
18/35(51%)
19/36(53%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.26
+0.25
Rushing Yards
212
139
Rush Attempts
30
32
Yards / Rush
7.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.48
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Raiders logo
1st Downs
24
24
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
11
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
60%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
9
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
60%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Raiders logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.59
--
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-9.70
--
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
58
65
Penalty EPA
-6.46
-4.11

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,547
Home Field
+88.5
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.2
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+24.0
Home QB Adjustment
+26.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

T. Taylor headshot

T. Taylor

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
Value
Ptile
09/15
6.7
89
09/25
-2.4
31
10/02
3.0
72
10/09
-1.9
35
10/16
3.0
73
10/23
-0.9
41
10/30
0.7
54
11/07
3.0
72
11/20
-3.0
26
11/27
-1.4
37
D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.8
Value
Ptile
09/18
8.5
94
09/25
-1.4
37
10/02
7.0
90
10/09
1.2
58
10/16
-0.8
43
10/23
0.2
51
10/30
14.4
100
11/06
-1.3
38
11/21
5.4
84
11/27
2.1
65

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Raiders Defense
Bills logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
10
20
Yards / Game
16
24
Passing Yards / Game
27
19
Rushing Yards / Game
1
23

EPA

EPA / Play
11
14
EPA / Pass
19
21
EPA / Rush
1
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
31
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
2
7
Turnover EPA / Game
30
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
13
4th Down Efficiency
10
3
RZ Efficiency
10
26
Raiders Offense vs Bills Defense
Raiders logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
9
16
Yards / Game
10
19
Passing Yards / Game
26
8
Rushing Yards / Game
6
29

EPA

EPA / Play
15
16
EPA / Pass
17
19
EPA / Rush
17
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
4
Interceptions / Game
9
20
Fumbles / Game
15
26
Turnover EPA / Game
26
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
19
4th Down Efficiency
20
6
RZ Efficiency
13
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-6
L
L
O
09/25
15
W
W
O
10/02
16
W
W
U
10/09
11
W
W
O
10/16
29
W
W
O
10/23
-3
L
L
O
10/30
-16
L
L
O
11/07
-6
L
L
O
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/27
7
W
L
O
OAK logo

Raiders

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/18
-7
L
L
O
09/25
7
W
W
U
10/02
1
W
W
O
10/09
3
W
L
O
10/16
-16
L
L
U
10/23
17
W
W
O
10/30
6
W
W
O
11/06
10
W
W
O
11/21
7
W
W
O
11/27
3
W
L
O