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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. bills @ chargers week 16, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
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  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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BUF logo
BUFBills
8-6
24
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
22
LACChargers
5-9
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Bills
0
14
7
3
24
Chargers
3
7
3
9
22

Spread

LAC logo
+13

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Bills logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
335
270
Total Plays
52
65
Yards / Play
6.4
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.01
Passing Yards
230
172
Comp/Att
15/21(71%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
11.0
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.48
-0.03
Rushing Yards
105
98
Rush Attempts
30
27
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.19
Downs & Conversions
Bills logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
16
18
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Bills logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-7.56
+6.70
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-40
Sack EPA
-1.42
-7.30
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
64
--
Penalty EPA
-6.90
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market85.2%
Model82.1%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers+13.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-229
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,681
Home Field
+69.7
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+24.4
Net QB Adjustment
-96.3
Home QB Adjustment
-89.6
Away QB Adjustment
+6.8
Market Regression
-33.3
Final Difference
-264.6
Model Spread
+11.0

Quarterbacks

J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+6.8
Value
Ptile
10/08
7.8
93
10/15
0.1
49
10/22
5.8
85
10/26
8.8
96
11/05
5.7
85
11/13
-1.6
39
11/19
4.5
78
11/26
11.3
98
12/10
-1.1
42
12/17
-0.3
47
E. Stick headshot

E. Stick

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-89.6
Value
Ptile
12/14
1.9
63

Team Matchup Ranks

Bills Offense vs Chargers Defense
Bills logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
6
23
Yards / Game
5
28
Passing Yards / Game
19
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
16

EPA

EPA / Play
3
20
EPA / Pass
6
24
EPA / Rush
1
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
12
Interceptions / Game
26
25
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
15
4th Down Efficiency
7
28
RZ Efficiency
4
12
Chargers Offense vs Bills Defense
Chargers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
21
3
Yards / Game
18
8
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
24
15

EPA

EPA / Play
22
11
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
31
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
3
5
Fumbles / Game
27
3
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
18
4th Down Efficiency
23
15
RZ Efficiency
13
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

BUF logo

Bills

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-5
L
L
U
10/15
5
W
L
U
10/22
-4
L
L
O
10/26
6
W
L
U
11/05
-6
L
L
U
11/13
-2
L
L
U
11/19
26
W
W
U
11/26
-3
L
L
O
12/10
3
W
W
U
12/17
21
W
W
U
LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-3
L
L
U
10/22
-14
L
L
U
10/29
17
W
W
U
11/06
21
W
W
U
11/12
-3
L
L
O
11/19
-3
L
L
U
11/26
-10
L
L
U
12/03
6
W
W
U
12/10
-17
L
L
U
12/14
-42
L
L
O